What is Impact-based forecasting in disaster management? How can such forecasting strengthen the Disaster Management preparedness?

Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) refers to weather monitoring and meteorological predictions which take into account the vulnerability and hazard to forecast impact in a region-specific approach.

How can IBF strengthen DM preparedness:

  • It takes into account both the social & economic and ecological vulnerability of an area to estimate the impact of a disaster.
  • It can help the local communities in their preparedness and mitigation efforts.
  • It can assist the administration in better planning the relief and rescue operations based on estimated impact.
  • It can help in taking up planning in short term, medium-term and long term to reduce the vulnerability. E.g – taking up nature-based solutions like planting shelter belts, mangroves, etc for future preparedness.
  • It can ease communication and data dissemination at all stages of disaster management viz pre, during, and post-disaster.

Recently, the Indian meteorological department came up with an Impact Based Cyclone Warning system for states most affected by tropical cyclones.

The impact-based forecast is a step ahead of conventional weather-based forecasting. It can help the administration to better utilize the capacities of the National Disaster Relief Force and other paramilitary forces well on time.

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