The National Family Health Survey (NFHS 2019-21) recently released its latest data, which documents a declining trend in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). TFR refers to the total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her lifetime, assuming she is subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility in the population. A TFR of approximately 2.1 children per woman is coined as Replacement-level fertility. If the TFR falls below 2.1 children per woman, it signifies that the current generation isn’t generating enough offspring to replace itself, which could eventually result in outright population reduction.
A Closer Look at the Declining Trend of TFR
The sustained family planning programme spanning decades has resulted in further decline of the TFR, from 2.2 reported in 2015-16 to 2.0 at the all-India level. In urban areas, the TFR has dropped to 1.6, while rural India maintains a replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1. The TFR was significantly higher in the 1950s, peaking at over six children per woman. This substantial decrease is largely due to improvements in maternal and child health.
Underlying Causes for the TFR Decline
The fall in TFR can be attributed to several factors. Empowerment of women and increased usage of modern contraceptive methods have played pivotal roles in this reduction. The contraceptive prevalence rate has risen substantially from 54% to 67% at the all-India level. Additionally, ongoing promotion of small family norms, introduction of new reversible spacing methods, and wage compensation systems for undergoing sterilisation have also contributed significantly.
Role of Government Initiatives in TFR Reduction
The government of India has been heavily invested in population control for years, being the first country to launch a national-level family planning programme. The Prime Minister, during his Independence Day Speech in 2019, urged the country to consider population control as a form of patriotism. The government also launched Mission Parivar Vikas in 2017 aimed at improving access to contraceptives and family planning services across districts with high fertility rates. Other initiatives include the National Family Planning Indemnity Scheme (NFPIS) and Compensation scheme for Sterilization Acceptors.
Significance and Implications of Declining TFR
A TFR of two is considered a stable indicator for long-term population stability. This means India has achieved its goal of population stabilisation and shouldn’t worry too much about an overlarge population hindering development. However, this does not eliminate current challenges such as a rising rate of female sterilisation and a declining sex ratio.
Concerns Regarding a Low TFR
Though population stabilisation is a positive outcome, a TFR lower than 2.1 can also lead to problems. For instance, it eventually leads to an increase in the old-aged population, similar to situations currently being experienced in China.
Looking Ahead: Strategies for the Future
To address these challenges, the government must adopt targeted social and behaviour-change communication strategies to ensure that men also participate in family planning. Regardless of population stabilization, continuous efforts towards environmental protection are also essential.
Last Modified: February 13, 2024