The 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target, alongside this year’s El Nino, has sparked global attention with reports hinting at the possibility of crossing this temperature threshold due to escalating climate phenomena. The background to the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming target can be traced back to the Paris Agreement, which aspires to restrain the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius by the close of this century. This goal, while important, isn’t based on rigid scientific proof; it was first proposed by economist William Nordhaus in the 1970s, and later adopted by some politicians and climate scientists.
The Alliance of Small Island States advocated for the target to be lessened to 1.5 degrees Celsius, leading to further adjustments of future scenarios to meet this ambition. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if prevailing trends persist, we are likely to hit 1.5°C of warming by 2030-2052.
Exploring the Impact of Warming on India
A recent study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) indicates that India’s average temperature has risen by roughly 0.7°C between 1901-2018, with the rate of warming elevating in recent decades. This impact on agriculture is significant, especially given the heavy reliance on monsoon rains. The alteration in rainfall patterns attributed to warming will notably influence crop yields, potentially escalating the occurrence of erratic monsoons, droughts, and extreme weather events such as heatwaves.
Public health too will be affected, with warmer temperatures potentially leading to the spread of diseases like malaria, dengue, and other vector-borne illnesses. Heatwaves would likely increase heat-related illnesses and mortality rates, particularly among vulnerable populations, adding strain to the healthcare system.
Further, ecosystems and biodiversity stand to be disrupted. Warming could cause shifts in vegetation patterns, modifying habitats for various plant and animal species, forcing many endemic species in India to face extinction or migrate to more suitable areas. Indian coasts also face risk given their vulnerability to rising sea levels due to warming. This would lead to coastal erosion and increased frequency of extreme weather events like cyclones, posing threats to coastal communities’ infrastructure and economic activities.
Lastly, with the intensification of climate-induced challenges, there could be a rise in migration, with people moving from severely impacted regions to more liveable areas. This would likely induce social tensions, resource competition, and strain on urban centers, creating obstacles for policymakers.
Reviewing Government Initiatives
In response to these climate change impacts, the Indian government has implemented the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), encompassing eight national missions including the National Solar Mission, National Mission on Sustainable Habitat among others. Additionally, the National Adaptation Fund on Climate Change (NAFCC), India Cooling Action Plan, and LiFE Initiative have been established.
Setting the Path for the Future
Moving forward, India needs to undertake comprehensive and ongoing national assessments of climate impacts and vulnerability, taking regional variations into account. Accurate data will facilitate evidence-based decision-making and targeted policy interventions.
Promoting green infrastructure and sustainable urban planning practices is another method to tackle the issue. Strategies include establishing green spaces, endorsing public transportation, and incentivizing eco-friendly building designs to reduce the urban heat island effect.
India also needs to introduce carbon pricing to internalize the environmental costs of greenhouse gas emissions. A circular economy model should be promoted to minimize waste and ensure resources are reused, repaired, or recycled. Furthermore, international cooperation is advisable for India to partner with other countries on joint climate initiatives, in order to share best practices and leverage resources to address climate change on a global level.
