The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently released its provisional State of the Global Climate report, which paints a sobering picture of the world’s climate situation. According to this preliminary study, the year 2020 is projected to be one of the three warmest years on record, with the decade from 2011-2020 being the hottest ever recorded. The final report is due in March 2021.
Rise in Global Temperatures
The global mean surface temperature for the period of January to October 2020 was 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial baseline of 1850 to 1900. This rise has led to the assertion that there is at least a one in five chance that the global temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2024, breaching the limit set by the Paris Agreement.
Despite conditions that should have had a cooling effect on temperatures such as the near-La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean since August and moderate La Niña conditions since October, 2020 has still managed to be one of the three hottest years along with 2016 and 2019.
High Temperature over Ocean Surfaces
According to the report, about 80% of oceanic surfaces have experienced a marine heat wave (MHW) in 2020. In these heatwaves, the ocean surface’s average temperature can rise up to 5-7°C above the norm. Marine heat waves become more severe over time, with stronger MHWs occurring 43% of the time in 2020, compared to moderate ones, which only accounted for 28% of the incidents.
Global sea-level rise in 2020 remained similar to the 2019 value, primarily due to increased melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.
Causes of Increased Temperatures
Scientific evidence points to human-induced global warming as the primary driver of increasing temperatures. This trend is mostly due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which reached record levels in 2019 but has seen a slight decrease this year due to efforts to combat the novel coronavirus disease.
However, measurements from specific locations such as Mauna Loa in Hawaii and Cape Grim in Tasmania suggest that levels of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrogen dioxide continue to rise in 2020.
Consequences of Global Warming in 2020
The repercussions of global warming in 2020 are quite severe. These include extreme weather events, tropical cyclones, floods, heavy rainfall, and droughts, all wreaking havoc across the world. The frequency of wildfire cases has also increased significantly.
The Atlantic hurricane season had a record-breaking 30 named storms from June to November. Heavy rains and flooding have affected many parts of Asia and Africa, while South America has experienced severe droughts. Sea level rises pose an existential threat to small island nations, potentially leaving these countries underwater and their populations homeless by century’s end.
Loss to Humanity
Global warming has not only triggered significant population movements but it has also severely affected vulnerable people on the move. It has caused considerable loss of life, property, and livelihoods, especially in regions like Sahel and Greater Horn in Africa and countries like China, India, Korea, and Japan in Asia. Additionally, Brazil alone has reported agricultural losses worth three billion American dollars.
Path Forward
As per the UN’s annual Production Gap assessment, oil, gas, and coal production must decrease by six percent annually to limit catastrophic global warming.
While the Paris Agreement’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) require more commitment from nations, this should not pressurize developing countries into ramping up their global warming mitigation targets. Overall, a stronger emphasis on environmental ethics must take precedence, even over national and strategic interests or economic concerns.