India is projected to experience a hotter and drier 2023 due to the development of El Nino, despite recent rainfalls. The usual monsoon season might face reduction due to this phenomenon, even though the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts normal rainfall. For the first time, the IMD has also released data regarding fatalities caused by extreme weather events.
Current Weather Conditions in India
Although India has seen recent rains, not all regions have been equally affected. The northeastern states, Jharkhand and West Bengal have been notably dry, while Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh have received up to 15 times more rainfall than expected. This uneven distribution is attributed to local weather phenomena.
The development of El Nino could dampen the monsoon season, making 2023 one of the top four warmest years on record globally. This poses an additional warming impact on the planet. Although India’s warming trend is slightly lower than the global average, certain states like Himachal Pradesh, Goa, and Kerala have become significantly hotter. Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha are among the eastern states which have experienced the least warming.
Predictions Based On Climate Models
The emergence of El Nino in May or June 2023 may weaken the southwest monsoon season. This season brings about 70% of India’s total annual rainfall, which is crucial for the farmers.
Heatwaves and droughts may become commonplace, not only in India but in other parts of the world like South Africa, Australia, Indonesia and the Pacific Islands. However, some regions might see contrasting effects. California, for instance, might witness heavy flooding and rainfall, causing bleaching and death of coral reefs.
El Nino’s Impact on Global Average Temperature
The El Nino event in 2023-2024 could push the global average temperature towards 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial average. One of the major effects of an El Nino event is ocean warming, which the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports as already at a record high.
Weather Events Causing Maximum Fatalities in India
According to IMD data, lightning strikes are responsible for more deaths than any other weather events in India. In 2022, 60% of weather-related deaths were attributed to this cause. Floods and extreme rainfall events came next, claiming 937 lives.
India’s Initiatives To Mitigate Climate Change
Several initiatives have been launched by India to handle the challenges posed by climate change. The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) was launched in 2008 to achieve low-carbon and climate-resilient development. Amongst these strategies, eight national missions have been initiated with the goal of integrating key elements in battling climate change.
Alongside the NAPCC, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) commits to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and undertake climate change adaptations by decreasing the emissions intensity of GDP by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030 and running 50% of electricity from non-fossil sources by the same year.
The National Adaptation Fund on Climate Change (NAFCC) has been established to give the state governments financial aid to implement various sector-based adaptation projects. The State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC), on the other hand, serves as a guide for each state and union territory in formulating their strategies based on their unique needs and priorities.
Past UPSC Civil Services Examination Questions
Previous years’ questions have touched upon relevant topics such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon and its relation to the Indian monsoon forecast. One of the mains questions discussed how India, including its Himalayan and coastal states, will be affected by climate change.