The tragic incident at Lamkhaga Pass trek where 21 trekkers lost their lives in four mountaineering and trekking expeditions recently has highlighted once again the significance of accurate weather forecasting. Nestled in the Garhwal Himalayas in Uttarakhand, Lamkhaga Pass is an elevated pass that connects with Sangla in Himachal Pradesh. This remote location, coupled with its high altitude, deems it one of the most challenging treks in the Himalayas in Uttrakhand.
The Essence of Weather Forecasting
Weather Forecasting involves the prediction of weather based on the principles of physics supplemented by various statistical and empirical techniques. It not only predicts atmospheric phenomena but also foresees changes on Earth’s surface caused by these conditions, such as snow and ice cover, storm tides, and floods.
Why do we need Weather Forecasting?
Weather Forecasting plays a vital role in various sectors. During warfare, it aids militaries to strategize their operations taking into account the expected weather conditions to heighten their chances of success. It helps in minimizing losses by allowing people to plan precautionary measures against natural disasters like floods and typhoons. For farmers, it assists in optimizing their farming activities according to anticipated weather conditions. In transport, especially air and water, weather forecasting greatly influences aircraft take-off and landing, and sea travel which can be significantly affected by storms and strong winds. Also, it guides and motivates tourists to explore certain areas.
Methods used in Weather Forecasting
Weather forecasters utilize massive amounts of data to create computer models and simulations to predict changes in weather. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) utilizes the INSAT series of satellites in the geosynchronous orbit along with the Real-Time Analysis of Products and Information Dissemination (RAPID), a weather data explorer application, which acts as a portal providing rapid interactive visualization and 4-Dimensional analysis capabilities. These satellites generate data about cloud motion, cloud top temperature, and water vapor content which aids in estimating rainfall, weather forecasting, and predicting the origin and direction of cyclones.
Technological Advancements in Weather Forecasting
In addition to satellite tracking data, IMD collaborates with ISRO for ground-based observations from the Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) that measures temperature, sunshine, wind direction, speed and humidity. The Agro-meteorological Tower (AGROMET) and Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) systems further augment these observations. In 2021, IMD modified its existing two-stage forecasting strategy for issuing monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall and adopted a new strategy based on the existing statistical forecasting system and the newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)-based forecasting system. The MME strategy utilizes coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centers, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model.
Issues associated with Weather Forecasting
Despite these advancements, weather forecasts can be incorrect due to the unforeseeable changes in ocean currents that significantly affect global weather systems. For India, the Bay of Bengal serves as a buffer affecting the country’s weather. The dynamic models of weather forecasting are based on specific assumptions and it’s not possible to incorporate all components of nature accurately in these models. This is one of the main reasons why forecasts can sometimes be inaccurate. Errors in forecasts can also originate from inaccuracies in the initial input provided to the models.
The Way Forward
While India relies on satellite data and computer models for weather forecasting, the UK has integrated supercomputers into their forecasting systems that collect and visualize data from satellites. These supercomputers can process petaflops of data in seconds, thus enhancing the speed and accuracy of forecasts. With time, further enhancements to this system are expected, with experts hopeful that weather predictions will continue to improve consistently.
