Cyclone Formation and Intensification Factors

Recent advancements in cyclone prediction have emerged from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information and Services (INCOIS). Scientists have successfully quantified the oceanic and atmospheric factors influencing cyclone formation and intensification. This breakthrough aims to enhance cyclone predictions and improve contingency planning and evacuation strategies. Cyclones pose threats to Indian coasts, particularly during the April-May and October-December periods.

Cyclone Patterns in India

Cyclones predominantly form in the Bay of Bengal. However, recent years have seen increased activity in the Arabian Sea. The months of May and November are particularly notorious for intense storms. About these patterns is crucial for preparedness and response.

Case Study – Cyclone Tauktae

Cyclone Tauktae, which developed in May 2021, serves as a critical case study. It reached wind speeds of 160-220 km/h, categorising it as an ‘extremely severe’ cyclone. This storm resulted in numerous casualties and damage, including the sinking of Barge P305. Tauktae approached within 140 km of India’s west coast before making landfall in Gujarat.

Role of Atmospheric and Oceanic Factors

The study revealed that atmospheric factors contributed 54% to Tauktae’s intensification, while oceanic factors accounted for 46%. This quantification is unprecedented and helps clarify the dynamics of cyclone development.

Key Predictive Factors Identified

Researchers identified several critical factors for predicting cyclone development. These include mid-atmospheric humidity, low-level absolute vorticity, vertical wind shear, and tropical cyclone heat potential. Elevated levels of humidity, ocean heat potential, moisture, and land temperatures were observed prior to Tauktae’s formation, indicating potential intensity.

Comparison with Other Cyclones

The methodology developed by INCOIS was validated against other cyclones such as Ockhi, Amphan, and Mocha. Findings showed that oceanic factors dominated Ockhi at 73%, while Amphan’s oceanic influence was 57%. In contrast, Cyclone Mocha exhibited a similar atmospheric dominance as Tauktae.

Future Developments in Cyclone Prediction

INCOIS is working on a new tool that will compile and analyse these factors to enhance forecasting capabilities. This tool aims to assist the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in refining their prediction models. The methodology could also be applied globally across various ocean basins.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically examine the significance of understanding cyclone formation in the context of climate change.
2. Discuss the impact of oceanic and atmospheric conditions on the intensity of tropical cyclones.
3. What are the implications of rapid intensification of cyclones for coastal communities? Explain.
4. With suitable examples, discuss how advancements in meteorological technology can improve disaster management in cyclone-prone areas.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically examine the significance of understanding cyclone formation in the context of climate change.

1. Climate change is increasing sea surface temperatures, which contribute to more intense cyclones.
2. About cyclone formation helps in predicting changes in cyclone patterns and frequencies due to climate change.
3. Enhanced prediction aids in timely evacuations and disaster preparedness, reducing human and economic losses.
4. Research on cyclone dynamics informs climate adaptation strategies for vulnerable coastal communities.
5. Knowledge of cyclone formation can guide policy-making and infrastructure development in cyclone-prone regions.

2. Discuss the impact of oceanic and atmospheric conditions on the intensity of tropical cyclones.

1. Oceanic conditions like warm sea surface temperatures provide energy for cyclone formation and intensification.
2. Atmospheric factors, including humidity and vertical wind shear, influence cyclone structure and strength.
3. In Cyclone Tauktae, atmospheric factors contributed 54% to its intensification, denoting their significance.
4. Variability in oceanic and atmospheric conditions can lead to rapid intensification, complicating prediction efforts.
5. Monitoring these conditions is crucial for accurate forecasting and timely warnings for affected areas.

3. What are the implications of rapid intensification of cyclones for coastal communities? Explain.

1. Rapid intensification can lead to unexpected and severe impacts, leaving little time for evacuation or preparedness.
2. Coastal infrastructure may not withstand the increased wind speeds and storm surges, leading to damage.
3. Communities may face heightened risks of flooding, loss of life, and long-term economic repercussions.
4. Increased unpredictability complicates disaster management and response planning for local authorities.
5. Awareness and education about rapid intensification can empower communities to better prepare for such events.

4. With suitable examples, discuss how advancements in meteorological technology can improve disaster management in cyclone-prone areas.

1. Satellite technology enables real-time monitoring of cyclone development and tracking, improving forecasting accuracy.
2. Numerical weather prediction models use advanced algorithms to simulate cyclone behavior and predict intensification.
3. Tools developed by INCOIS, like the one analyzing oceanic and atmospheric factors, can enhance predictive capabilities.
4. Automated early warning systems can disseminate alerts quickly to vulnerable populations, facilitating timely evacuations.
5. Case studies, such as Cyclone Tauktae, illustrate how improved technology can lead to better preparedness and response efforts.