Andhra Pradesh’s Rollback of Two-Child Policy

Recent developments in Andhra Pradesh highlight shift in population policy. Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has voiced concerns over the state’s ageing population. To address this, his government has repealed a longstanding law prohibiting individuals with more than two children from contesting local elections. This decision marks a departure from the two-child policy first introduced in the 1990s.

Background of the Two-Child Policy

The two-child policy was implemented in the early 1990s. It aimed to control population growth amid rising concerns from the 1981 and 1991 census data. The National Development Council established a committee which recommended restrictions on government positions based on family size. Several states adopted this policy, with Rajasthan being the first in 1992.

States That Rescinded the Policy

By 2005, several states began to roll back the two-child policy. Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh were among the first to rescind it. The decline in the sex ratio at birth was factor. The strict enforcement of the policy led to gender-selective practices, prompting concerns about demographic imbalances.

Reasons for Andhra Pradesh’s Reversal

The recent repeal in Andhra Pradesh is driven by fears of a declining fertility rate. The state’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is currently at 1.5, lower than the national average of 2.11. This decline poses risks to the state’s productivity and economic future. Naidu’s administration seeks to encourage families to have more children to mitigate these challenges.

Political Context and Implications

The timing of this policy change coincides with upcoming delimitation exercises based on population metrics. Politicians from various parties, including K T Rama Rao of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi, have expressed concerns about equitable representation in the context of population changes. There is a fear that southern states may be disadvantaged in future political allocations due to their successful family planning initiatives.

Demographic Experts’ Opinions

Demographers caution that merely offering incentives for larger families may not effectively reverse ageing trends. Historical data from various countries shows that such incentives often do not yield the desired outcomes. The complexities of societal norms and economic conditions play important role in family planning decisions.

Future Considerations

The implications of these demographic shifts are deep. Policymakers must consider not just the immediate effects of population changes but also long-term societal impacts. The balance between incentivising larger families and ensuring gender equality remains a delicate issue.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically analyse the impact of the two-child policy on gender ratios in India.
2. Point out the reasons behind the rollback of the two-child policy in various state of Indias.
3. Estimate the potential economic consequences of an ageing population in India.
4. What is the significance of delimitation in the context of demographic changes? How can it affect political representation?

Answer Hints:

1. Critically analyse the impact of the two-child policy on gender ratios in India.

1. The two-child policy led to a preference for male children, exacerbating gender-selective practices.
2. Data from 2003-2005 showed decline in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) to 880:1000.
3. The policy’s strict enforcement resulted in families resorting to sex-selective abortions.
4. States with the policy experienced demographic imbalances, affecting future population dynamics.
5. Rescinding the policy in some states aimed to mitigate these gender imbalances and improve SRB.

2. Point out the reasons behind the rollback of the two-child policy in various states of India.

1. Worsening sex ratios prompted concerns over gender imbalances in society.
2. The National Population Policy of 2000 shifted focus to a target-free approach, promoting reproductive rights.
3. Legal challenges questioned the constitutional validity of the two-child policy.
4. States faced criticism for the negative social implications of strict population control measures.
5. Demographic changes, such as declining fertility rates, necessitated a reevaluation of the policy.

3. Estimate the potential economic consequences of an ageing population in India.

1. An ageing population may lead to a shrinking workforce, reducing economic productivity.
2. Increased healthcare costs and pension liabilities could strain public resources.
3. Declining consumer spending power due to fewer working-age individuals may impact economic growth.
4. Potential labor shortages could hinder sectors reliant on young workers.
5. Long-term economic sustainability may require reforms in immigration and labor policies.

4. What is the significance of delimitation in the context of demographic changes? How can it affect political representation?

1. Delimitation adjusts electoral boundaries based on population changes, impacting representation in governance.
2. Population-based delimitation could disadvantage states with successful family planning, like those in the south.
3. It aims to ensure fair representation, reflecting demographic shifts in political power distribution.
4. Concerns arise about potential underrepresentation of regions with declining populations.
5. Delimitation can influence resource allocation and development priorities among states.