The recent study on Arctic sea ice suggests that if carbon emissions persist at their current levels, by 2100 we may witness the disappearance of summer ice in the arctic. This could potentially mean a wipeout of creatures that depend on this ice for survival, including seals and polar bears. The Arctic sea ice recently reached its lowest extent, marking 4.72 million square miles, which is the 12th recorded lowest. Interestingly, the record minimum melting of the ice was observed back in 2012.
Overview of the Study
The study focuses on a region extending to a million square kilometers north of Greenland and along the coastlines of the Canadian Archipelago. This is historically where the thickest sea ice has been found throughout the year, making it the most resilient. The researchers have outlined two potential scenarios based on varying carbon emission levels.
Optimistic Scenario: Low Emissions
In the optimistic scenario, where we manage to control our carbon emissions, some amount of summer ice could potentially persist indefinitely. Under such conditions, there is hope that at least certain ice-dependent species such as seals and bears could survive. These species are observed existing under similar conditions along the western parts of Alaska and in regions of Hudson Bay.
Pessimistic Scenario: High Emissions
In a high emissions scenario, where carbon emissions continue unabated, summer ice would be wiped out by the end of the century. Even the ice from the central Arctic is expected to reduce by mid-century and will no longer last through the year. Locally formed summer ice might persist in areas known as the Last Ice Area, but it will only be about a meter thick.
Implications of High-Emission Scenario
By 2100, even the locally formed ice could disappear during summer. If there is no ice anywhere during summer, it would mean that there are no ice-dependent ecosystems.
About the Arctic
The Arctic is a polar region which is located at the northernmost point on Earth. This region undergoes significant variations in snow and ice cover depending upon the season. The Arctic comprises of the Arctic Ocean, adjacent seas, and some parts of Alaska (United States), Canada, Finland, Greenland (Denmark), Iceland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden.
About Sea Ice
Sea ice is essentially frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface. It covers about 7% of the Earth’s surface and roughly around 12% of the world’s oceans. This floating ice has a major impact on the polar environment as it influences ocean circulation, weather patterns, and regional climate.
Polar Habitats: Penguins and Polar Bears
On a side note about polar habitats, penguins live in Antarctica in the southern hemisphere whereas polar bears reside in the Arctic, or the northern hemisphere. Despite their similar icy habitats, these two species have never lived together. Polar bears don’t live in Antarctica due to evolutionary factors, location, and climate, with the continent having been isolated before bears evolved. On the other hand, the Arctic’s harsh conditions and presence of predators like polar bears and arctic foxes make survival difficult for penguins. Besides, water scarcity and difficulties in hunting also pose challenges.