The ongoing internal conflict in Libya that emerged in 2011 is currently showing signs of a potential deescalation. This development has come as the rival authorities in the country have appealed for a ceasefire. This article explores the key factors in the conflict, the prospective ceasefire, the political background of the country, its impact on Libyans and the international response.
The Rival Forces in Libya’s Conflict
The major players in this conflict are the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar, and forces loyal to the Government of National Accord (GNA), which is based in Tripoli and recognized internationally. Both factions consist of armed local groups with fluctuating allegiances, significantly influencing the direction of the conflict.
The LNA is primarily backed by countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Russia, and Jordan, while the GNA receives support from the USA, Turkey, and Qatar.
The Proposed Ceasefire
The head of the GNA has recently called for a ceasefire. The proposal includes plans to demilitarize Sirte city and resume oil production until a political settlement can be reached. Additionally, the GNA is suggesting elections in March 2021. Although the LNA has dismissed this proposal, the LNA-coordinated parliament has made a similar appeal for a ceasefire and proposed Sirte as the seat of a new government.
The Political Backdrop of Libya
Libya was under Muammar Gaddafi’s rule for 42 years, from 1969 until 2011 when he overthrew the previous monarchy and declared the establishment of the Libyan Arab Republic. However, the first civil war broke out in Libya against Gaddafi’s regime in 2011, aligning with a series of anti-dictatorial protests in various Arab nations. This marked the beginning of the Arab Spring.
In response to the civil war, NATO commenced a military intervention in Libya in 2011, with an aim to safeguard civilians and assist rebel forces. This intervention was endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution, albeit with abstentions from five countries including India, Brazil, Germany, Russia, and China.
Impact of the Conflict
The conflict has led to the displacement of approximately 400,000 Libyans over the last nine years, with thousands more losing their lives. The occurrence has created billions of dollars in lost oil revenue, affected infrastructure, and dramatically decreased the standards of living.
International Response
The international arena has been actively involved in managing the Libyan situation. The International Berlin conference, which occurred in January 2020, resulted in the UN Security Council endorsing a 55-point agenda to end the war in Libya. This resolution demanded countries refrain from interfering in Libya’s affairs and uphold a UN arms embargo.
India’s Position on the Libyan Crisis
India has expressed grave concern over the ongoing conflict and instability in Libya, stating its support for immediate cessation of all hostilities in the country. While India criticized potential USA military intervention in Libya over concerns for civilian safety, its stance on Libya reflects a mix of realism and strategic interests.
The Path to Peace
Achieving peace in Libya is not merely critical for the country itself, but also pivotal for stabilizing the global oil market and setting a precedent for similarly war-torn nations. However, a sustainable resolution will necessitate elusive political and economic agreements, along with the cooperation from foreign powers.
