China and India Lead Global Coal Power Expansion

China and India accounted for nearly 88% of the world’s new coal power capacity proposals. China added 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity in six months, the highest in almost a decade. India commissioned 5.1 GW of new coal plants and has 92 GW in the pipeline. Despite rapid growth in renewables, both countries continue to invest heavily in coal to ensure energy security. Meanwhile, Europe and Latin America are phasing out coal entirely, denoting a global divide in energy strategies.

China’s Coal Capacity Surge

China leads coal power expansion in 2025. It added 21 GW of coal capacity in the first half of the year, the largest increase since 2016. This surge follows energy shortages in 2021-22 that pushed policymakers to prioritise coal. However, coal use did not rise equally; carbon dioxide emissions fell by about 1% due to rapid renewable energy growth. Many new coal plants serve as standby capacity for peak demand periods rather than continuous use.

India’s Dual Energy Strategy

India’s renewable capacity exceeded 220 GW by March 2025, on track for a 500 GW target by 2030. Despite this, coal still generates around 70% of India’s electricity. The country plans to add about 90 GW of coal capacity in the next seven years, increasing earlier targets by 60%. In the first half of 2025, India commissioned 5.1 GW of coal power. Coal plant retirements remain slow, with just 0.8 GW shut down this year. Delays in pollution control enforcement prolong the life of old plants, reflecting a dual track approach combining renewables with coal.

Global Divide in Coal Phase-Out

While China and India expand coal, Europe and Latin America move away from it. Ireland closed its last coal plant in June 2025. Many European Union countries plan total coal phase-outs between 2029 and 2033. Latin America has nearly stopped proposing new coal projects. This split challenges the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as halting new coal development is essential but contradicted by Asia’s coal expansion.

Energy Security Versus Climate Goals

China and India’s coal expansion is driven by energy security and industrial needs rather than a simple desire to increase emissions. China uses coal as a buffer against shortages. India relies on it for baseload power and economic growth. Both countries also aggressively expand renewables. This parallel growth shows their energy transition is complex and nonlinear. Their choices will influence global emissions and climate targets in the coming decade.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Taking example of China and India, discuss the challenges of balancing energy security and climate change mitigation in developing economies.
2. Examine the impact of coal phase-out policies in Europe and Latin America on global climate goals. How do these contrast with policies in Asia?
3. Analyse the role of renewable energy expansion alongside fossil fuel use in the energy transition. Discuss in the light of recent developments in global energy markets.
4. Critically discuss the implications of continued coal power development on the Paris Agreement targets. With suitable examples, evaluate alternative strategies for sustainable energy growth.

Answer Hints:

1. Taking example of China and India, discuss the challenges of balancing energy security and climate change mitigation in developing economies.

1. China and India are rapidly expanding renewables but still heavily invest in coal for energy security and industrial demand.
2. Energy shortages in China (2021-22) led to prioritizing coal to prevent power crises, showing supply reliability concerns.
3. India relies on coal for around 70% of electricity, making it central to baseload power and economic growth.
4. Delays in pollution control and slow coal plant retirements extend coal dependence despite climate commitments.
5. Balancing immediate development needs and long-term climate goals creates a complex, nonlinear energy transition.
6. Both countries’ choices influence global emissions trajectories and climate mitigation efforts.

2. Examine the impact of coal phase-out policies in Europe and Latin America on global climate goals. How do these contrast with policies in Asia?

1. Europe plans full coal phase-outs between 2029 and 2033; Ireland closed its last coal plant in 2025.
2. Latin America has nearly stopped new coal proposals, signaling a near end to coal’s future in the region.
3. These phase-outs support Paris Agreement goals by reducing carbon emissions and promoting cleaner energy.
4. In contrast, Asia (China and India) is expanding coal capacity massively, complicating global emission reductions.
5. Asia’s coal growth is driven by energy security and industrialization priorities, delaying global coal decline.
6. This regional divergence poses a challenge to limiting warming to 1.5°C globally.

3. Analyse the role of renewable energy expansion alongside fossil fuel use in the energy transition. Discuss in the light of recent developments in global energy markets.

1. China and India are adding record amounts of solar and wind capacity while also increasing coal power.
2. Renewables reduce carbon intensity but coal remains essential for grid stability and peak demand backup.
3. New coal plants in China often serve as standby capacity, not continuous baseload, reflecting a hybrid approach.
4. India’s renewable capacity surpassed 220 GW, targeting 500 GW by 2030, yet coal still dominates power generation.
5. The coexistence reflects transitional challenges in integrating intermittent renewables into existing grids.
6. Global energy markets show that fossil fuels remain critical in developing economies during transition phases.

4. Critically discuss the implications of continued coal power development on the Paris Agreement targets. With suitable examples, evaluate alternative strategies for sustainable energy growth.

1. Continued coal expansion in China and India increases carbon emissions, undermining the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement.
2. Example – China added 21 GW coal capacity in six months (2025), India plans 90 GW more coal by 2032.
3. Coal use delays decarbonization despite growth in renewables, complicating global emission reduction pathways.
4. Alternative strategies include accelerating renewable deployment, grid modernization, energy efficiency, and storage technologies.
5. Phasing out coal with just transition policies protects workers and economies dependent on coal sectors.
6. International finance and technology transfer can support developing countries to leapfrog to cleaner energy systems.