A recent joint statement by China and Russia has emphasized their growing bond, superior to any political or military alliance during the Cold War era. Issued amid Russia’s standoff with NATO over Ukraine, the statement sheds light on the complex relationship dynamics between the two nations, their historical developments and current developments, and implications for India.
Historical Dynamics of China-Russia Relations
Russia and China’s relationship, though united in rejecting US unipolarity, is multifaceted and layered. The historical ties between these two nations date back to the Cold War era when relations were marred by mistrust and doctrinal differences. The scenario changed drastically in 1989 when Mikhail Gorbachev became the first Soviet leader to visit China since Nikita Khrushchev.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, thrown into economic crisis and degraded by the West, Russia leaned towards China. The 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation initiated expanded economic and trade ties between these two nations. Moreover, a virtual meeting in June 2021 further cemented their relationship as it was stated that Russian-Chinese coordination played a stabilizing role in world affairs.
Current Developments in China-Russia Relations
Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 led to strained relations with the US, NATO and EU. However, it also marked a turning point in Russia-China relations, revealing the potential and limitations of their partnership. The subsequent sanctions imposed by the US, EU, and Australia saw Russia opening its doors to Chinese investments.
These included a USD 400 billion deal with Gazprom, Russia’s state monopoly gas exporter, scheduled to supply 38 billion cubic meters annually to China from 2025. Furthermore, another significant development occurred in January 2022 when both countries signed a deal for another pipeline, Power of Siberia 2. Currently, China stands as Russia’s largest trading partner with trade escalating from USD 50 billion in 2016 to over USD 147 billion.
Differences in Russia & China interests
Although the China-Russia compact seems solid, it is not a formal security alliance against the West, nor an ideological partnership. Their distinct regional interests and independent stances on several issues, including Russia’s relationship with India, showcase these differences.
Despite a booming economy – Russia’s GDP is a tenth of China’s – Russia is unwilling to play second fiddle. Additionally, concerning Central Asia, while talk of collaboration prevails, Russia considers this region to be within its sphere of influence.
Implications for India
In this changing geopolitical landscape, India’s strategy should involve treating its relations with both Russia and China and the US separately to avoid compromising its own interests. While India’s relations with Russia have evolved over time, there are still beneficial aspects to their partnership.
In the backdrop of the Russia-China joint statement, it is crucial not to overlook that no reference was made to China’s border dispute with India, only to the development of cooperation among the three countries. In addition, Russia has reaffirmed that Kashmir remains an issue for India and Pakistan to resolve bilaterally.
The structural constraints imposed by the great power dynamics and differing perceptions of the regional security environment could potentially be reduced if matters improve between the US and Russia. Moreover, India needs to promote mutually beneficial trilateral cooperation between Russia, China, and itself to reduce mistrust and suspicion, leveraging platforms such as BRICS, SCO, and the RIC trilateral forum.
