The recent withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has put the spotlight on China, as it emerges as one of the first nations to establish diplomatic relations with the Taliban. This move appears to stem from China’s economic and security interests in Afghanistan.
A Look at China’s Economic Interests in Afghanistan
Afghanistan is believed to host some of the largest reserves of lithium globally, a crucial mineral used extensively in large-capacity lithium-ion batteries. These batteries are a fundamental component of the burgeoning electric vehicle industry and renewable energy sector. Given that China leads Lithium-Ion Battery Production worldwide, there is speculation that it might negotiate a long-term contract that will allow it to mine these lithium reserves and take ownership in exchange.
Afghanistan is also acknowledged for its vast untapped mineral deposits, worth an estimated $3 trillion. The resource-rich country boasts an array of valuable minerals including gold, oil, bauxite, rare earths, chromium, copper, natural gas, uranium, coal, iron ore, lead, zinc, gemstones, talc, sulfur, travertine, gypsum, and marble.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could potentially make significant strides by extending from Pakistan into Afghanistan via a Peshawar-to-Kabul motorway. Such an expansion would pave a shorter land route, facilitating a quicker and more convenient channel for transporting Chinese goods to Middle Eastern markets.
Why Security in Afghanistan Matters to China
According to a UN security council report, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), an Uyghur Islamic extremist organization built in Western China, found its roots in Afghanistan. It received support from the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the 2000s. With the intent to establish an independent state named East Turkestan in place of Xinjiang, ETIM directly threatens China’s national security and territorial integrity.
China is concerned that Afghanistan could potentially function as a shelter for the Uyghur extremist group. This, in turn, may provoke retaliation against the widespread repression of Uyghurs taking place in China.
China’s Engagement with the Taliban: Implications for India
With a newly developed BRI route through Kabul, India’s refusal to join BRI may hold less significance. The increased engagement between China and the Taliban might pave the way for a new regional geopolitical quartet between China-Pakistan-Taliban, which could negatively affect Indian interests.
Moreover, China’s increasing influence in Afghanistan could also obstruct the progress of connectivity projects to Central Asia via Afghanistan. Crucial ventures like the Chabahar Port, International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), and TAPI Pipeline may be at risk.
Possible Ways Forward
Given the present circumstances, it may be beneficial for India to open dialogue channels with the Taliban. This could facilitate India in securing assurances from the insurgents regarding continued development assistance, while simultaneously exploring possibilities for the Taliban’s autonomy from Pakistan.
Furthermore, the growing issue of global terrorism calls for concerted effort from the international community. One possible avenue could be adopting the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism, a proposal put forward by India at the UN in 1996.
