The Line of Actual Control (LAC), the Mabja Zangbo river, the River Ganga, and the Brahmaputra River form a matrix of contention and strategic importance in Indo-Chinese relations. Recently, growing concerns have emerged regarding China’s ongoing construction of a new dam in Tibet, close to the tri-junction of India, Nepal, and Tibet. The issue has sparked concern given China’s escalating development of military and dual-use infrastructure along both eastern and western sectors of the LAC.
Background of the Dam Construction
China unveiled plans in 2021 to construct a colossal dam on Yarlung Zangbo’s lower reaches intending to generate up to 70 GW of power. This capacity is thrice that of China’s Three Gorges dam, currently the world’s largest hydropower plant. The Brahmaputra, known as Yarlung Tsangpo in China, is a transborder river stretching 2,880 km, originating from Mansarovar lake. It flows through Tibet, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Bangladesh and is crucial for nearly 30% of freshwater resources and 40% of India’s hydropower potential.
Location of the New Dam
The new dam is situated approximately 16 km north of the tri-junction, opposite Uttarakhand’s Kalapani area. The dam is set on the Mabja Zangbo river, which is a tributary of the Ganga. Construction work on the dam has been visible on the river’s northern side in Burang county, Tibet, since May 2021. The Mabja Zangbo River feeds into Nepal’s Ghaghara or the Karnali River before it merges with the Ganga River in India.
Reasons for Concern
Several concerns arise from this new dam. Firstly, the construction of an embankment dam with a reservoir suggests China’s ambition for future control over water in the region. Furthermore, the possibility of China positioning a military establishment near the tri-junction cannot be ruled out.
Secondly, the dam could potentially lead to water scarcity, as China could divert and store water which would affect regions reliant on the Mabja Zangbo river, leading to lower water levels in rivers such as Ghaghara and Karnali in Nepal.
Lastly, the strategic placement of dams near the border could underpin China’s claims on disputed areas within the region.
China’s Quest for Hydro Hegemony
China’s bid for hydro hegemony has seen the country building numerous dams and dikes to control river flow, particularly on the Indus, Brahmaputra, and Mekong. Occupation of Tibet has provided China with starting points for rivers that flow into 18 countries.
China has erected several thousand dams capable of causing floods by sudden water release or creating droughts by shutting off the flow, thereby causing ecological devastation and disrupting human life.
China’s plan encompasses four dams on the Brahmaputra River, which would impact the river’s flows. India has lodged a complaint against this proposition. However, China declined to share hydrographic data with India while sharing it with Bangladesh, resulting in unpreparedness for massive floods in Assam.
Furthermore, China has constructed eleven large dams on the Mekong River, raising alarms among South-East-Asian nations. These developments underline China’s strategic use of its economic relations and trade surplus to develop potential military power status in Asia, specifically impacting India as its neighbour.
