China, the world’s second-largest economy, is classified as a developing nation by the United Nations. This classification allows China to avoid strict short-term greenhouse gas emission reductions. However, it has been the largest emitter for over 15 years, contributing over 30% of global emissions. Without important cuts from China, global emission targets are unlikely to be met.
The Urgent Need for Emission Cuts
Recent analyses indicate that China must reduce its emissions by 66% by 2030 and by 78% by 2035 to align with the 1.5-degree Celsius target of the Paris Agreement. The current trajectory shows that global emissions in 2030 may only be 2% lower than 2019 levels. The urgency of these cuts is critical for the global climate agenda.
China’s Energy Landscape
Despite rapid renewable energy deployment, China remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Coal accounts for over half of its electricity generation. The share of renewables in China’s primary energy supply is still in single digits. Current renewables are merely adding capacity rather than replacing fossil fuels.
Global Supply Chain Concerns
China dominates the global supply chains of renewable energy technologies. It produces over 80% of solar panels and 60% of wind turbines. A rapid reduction in emissions could disrupt these supply chains, slowing down global renewable energy deployment. This presents a Catch-22 situation where necessary emission cuts could hinder the transition to cleaner energy.
Historical Context and Current Implications
China’s emissions have surged since the 1990s, capitalising on its developing nation status. While it contributes to renewable energy manufacturing, it remains largely unconstrained by climate regulations. As a result, China’s emissions are nearly three times that of the United States, complicating global climate efforts.
Projected Emissions for 2024
The Global Carbon Budget projects that CO2 emissions will reach 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023. This increase is attributed to fossil fuel use and land-use changes, exacerbated by drought conditions during the El Niño climate event. The World Meteorological Organization has warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record.
Impacts of Climate Change
The long-term effects of CO2 emissions are deep. They lock in temperature increases for generations. As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, severe climate impacts are expected. The urgency for global cooperation and substantial action is more pressing than ever.
Questions for UPSC:
- Examine the implications of China’s emissions on global climate targets.
- Critically discuss the role of renewable energy in China’s economy and its global impact.
- Analyse the effects of over-dependence on China for renewable energy technologies.
- Point out the challenges faced by developing countries in meeting international climate agreements.
