The Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), has recently conducted a study to evaluate the impact of Covid-19 on carbon emissions. The key findings suggest that emissions will dip between 4.2 and 7.5% this year, a significant shift from the initially projected 1% increase for 2020 pre-pandemic.
Global Energy Review: 2020 by the International Energy Agency (IEA)
Before CICERO’s study, the International Energy Agency (IEA) had released the Global Energy Review: 2020, detailing the implications of the pandemic on worldwide energy demand and carbon emissions. The report mentions the significant decrease in air pollution and improved air quality during lockdown in countries such as India.
Data Analysis: Impact of Covid-19 on Carbon Emissions
Compared to the same time in 2019, carbon emissions have decreased by 5%. There has been a decline in coal emissions by 8%, oil emissions by 4.5% and natural gas emissions by 2.3%. It was further observed that the regions worst affected by the disease witnessed the most significant drop in emissions. China and Europe experienced an 8% decrease, while the USA saw a 9% reduction. During full lockdown, countries have observed an average fall in energy demand by 25% per week, while in partial lockdown conditions, the drop is approximately 18% per week.
Reasons behind Decreased Carbon Emissions
Reduced global energy demand due to lockdowns and limited road and air travel have played a significant role in lowering carbon emissions. Most carbon-intensive fuels saw the largest drop in demand in the first quarter of 2020. This decrease in demand resulted in a more substantial decline in carbon emissions than the fall in global energy demand. With people staying at home, commercial energy demand has plummeted while domestic electricity demand has surged.
Implications and Consequences
The temporary reduction in carbon emissions will not make a significant dent in climate change because it is a cumulative problem. Dropping emissions for just one year will barely impact the overall situation. To put this into perspective, a 5% drop is equivalent to 0.001 degree Celsius less warming.
About Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO)
Established in Norway, CICERO is a leading institute conducting interdisciplinary climate research. Since 1992, it has actively participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is recognized nationally and internationally for promoting climate change knowledge and innovative communication.
About International Energy Agency (IEA)
The International Energy Agency is an autonomous organization dedicated to ensuring reliable, affordable, and clean energy. It was founded in 1974 following the 1973 OPEC oil crisis. Located in Paris, France, the IEA releases an annual World Energy Outlook report. India became its associate member in 2017.
Future Prospects
While the decline in emissions appears positive, it’s not a cause for celebration as emissions are likely to skyrocket once economies restart. The only way to maintain reduced emissions levels is if governments consciously decide to shift towards renewable energy sources.