Climate Change and Weather Patterns in India

Climate change is increasingly affecting global weather patterns. Recent reports highlight the impact of rising temperatures in India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an early and intense summer, with prolonged heatwaves expected. February 2025 was the warmest recorded since 1901. The country also experienced one of the driest winters in recent history, raising alarms about climate change.

Impact of La Niña and El Niño

La Niña and El Niño are critical phenomena affecting global weather. La Niña typically brings cooler conditions, while El Niño raises temperatures. However, the current La Niña is weak and may not mitigate rising temperatures. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle influences these patterns. This cycle lasts between two to seven years, alternating between warm and cool phases.

Role of Jet Streams

Jet streams are powerful winds in the upper atmosphere. They shift north and south, impacting weather patterns. A northward shift in these streams correlates with more intense heatwaves. This shift affects the duration and severity of heat events. About jet streams is crucial for predicting seasonal weather changes.

Year-to-Year Variability

Despite the overarching trend of climate change, year-to-year variability remains . Seasonal conditions can fluctuate due to natural weather patterns. For instance, dry winters can lead to hotter springs. This variability complicates the understanding of climate impacts on weather.

Recent Temperature Trends

Global temperatures have risen . From March 2024 to February 2025, temperatures were 0.71°C above the 1990-2020 average. This rise is attributed to both natural and human-induced factors. Sea surface temperatures are also abnormally high across various ocean basins. These conditions exacerbate extreme weather events.

Future Projections

Studies indicate that El Niño events may become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Predictions suggest that half of the El Niño events could be classified as extreme. The 2023-24 El Niño is already one of the strongest on record, leading to unprecedented heatwaves in India. The IMD reported 536 heatwave days in summer 2024, the highest in 14 years.

Climate Change and Heatwaves

Climate change is the dominant factor influencing weather extremes. Even under ENSO-neutral conditions, harsh heatwaves are expected. The current trends indicate that India will face increasing challenges due to climate change. The interplay between La Niña and El Niño will continue to shape weather patterns.

World Meteorological Organization Updates

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced a likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions from March to May 2025. However, the ongoing climate crisis suggests that these conditions may not alleviate the severity of heatwaves. The WMO’s predictions highlight the urgency of addressing climate change.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically discuss the impact of climate change on global weather patterns.
2. Examine the role of jet streams in influencing seasonal weather changes.
3. Analyse the significance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle in climate variability.
4. Estimate the potential consequences of increasing frequency of extreme weather events on agricultural practices in India.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically discuss the impact of climate change on global weather patterns.

1. Climate change leads to rising global temperatures, affecting seasonal weather.
2. Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts, are becoming more frequent.
3. Regions experience altered precipitation patterns, contributing to water scarcity.
4. Human activities, like greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbate these changes.
5. Global warming results in a “new normal” of unpredictable weather conditions.

2. Examine the role of jet streams in influencing seasonal weather changes.

1. Jet streams are high-altitude winds that dictate weather patterns by shifting north and south.
2. A northward shift in jet streams is linked to increased intensity and duration of heatwaves.
3. They influence the distribution of storm systems and precipitation patterns.
4. Changes in jet streams can lead to extreme weather events, including droughts and floods.
5. About jet streams is crucial for accurate weather forecasting.

3. Analyse the significance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle in climate variability.

1. ENSO consists of two phases – El Niño (warming) and La Niña (cooling), impacting global weather.
2. The cycle lasts between 2 to 7 years, causing fluctuations in temperature and precipitation.
3. El Niño often leads to warmer winters and more extreme weather globally.
4. La Niña can bring cooler conditions but may not sufficiently counteract global warming trends.
5. ENSO’s variability complicates long-term climate predictions and impacts agriculture and ecosystems.

4. Estimate the potential consequences of increasing frequency of extreme weather events on agricultural practices in India.

1. Increased heatwaves can lead to crop failures and reduced yields, threatening food security.
2. Unpredictable rainfall patterns may disrupt planting and harvesting schedules.
3. Soil degradation and water scarcity can arise from prolonged droughts and extreme temperatures.
4. Pest and disease outbreaks may increase due to warmer conditions and changing ecosystems.
5. Farmers may need to adapt practices, including crop diversification and improved irrigation methods.