The article discusses the increasingly frequent tropical cyclones in the Eastern Arabian Sea, their potential causes, and the impact they could have on local communities and ecosystems. The information is based on a recent study published in the Nature Journal, which forms part of the “Forecasting with Fisher’s” project by the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT).
Emerging Concerns of Frequent Tropical Cyclones
The study highlights the alarming frequency of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Arabian Sea. These weather disturbances are becoming more common due to changes in ocean and atmospheric warming patterns. They typically occur at the onset of the southwestern monsoon between March and June and again from October to December after the season. Despite accounting for only about 2% of the global mean of tropical cyclones annually, these storms pose a significant threat due to the densely populated coastlines of the Arabian Sea.
The Role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The positive phase of IOD results in warmer sea surface temperatures and increased rainfall in the western Indian Ocean region. The IOD—sometimes referred to as the Indian Nino and compared to El Nino—occurs within a smaller area of the Indian Ocean, between Indonesia and Malaysia’s coastline in the east and Somalia’s coastline in the west.
Human Influence on Increasing Cyclones
The study attributes the rise in severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea during the post-monsoon season mainly to human-caused impacts rather than natural variability. Anthropogenic climate change contributes to the intensification and higher frequency of cyclones in this region.
Threats to Western Indian Coastline
The escalation in cyclone intensity and occurrence poses a significant danger to the densely populated western coast of India. These regions, from Gujarat to Thiruvananthapuram, are at increased risk of strong winds, storm surges, heavy rainfall, and other associated hazards.
Concerns for Coastal Communities
Changing cyclone patterns are expected to significantly impact indigenous coastal communities and artisanal fishers. As a result, further studies and development of adaptation strategies are required.
Recommendations from the Study
Along with warning of increasing risks, the study calls for changes in development strategies, stressing the necessity for updated policies and technologies related to storm warnings and local weather services.
Understanding Cyclones
Cyclones are more frequent and intense in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) than in the Arabian Sea. There are typically multiple cyclonic events during the tropical cyclone season in the BOB, which runs from April to December. Higher sea surface temperatures provide the necessary energy and moisture for cyclone formation and intensification, especially during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons.
Previous Year Questions in UPSC Civil Services Examination
The article concludes with questions related to cyclones from previous year examinations. By studying these, potential candidates can better understand the types of questions and topics important for the examination and study accordingly.