Climate Change Intensifies Heat Exposure in Africa

Recent analysis by Climate Central reveals alarming trends in global heat exposure, particularly affecting Africa. The report uses the Climate Shift Index (CSI) to measure how climate change alters daily temperatures worldwide. The findings highlight the disproportionate impact on Africa, where millions are facing unprecedented heat levels.

Climate Shift Index Explained

The Climate Shift Index quantifies the likelihood of daily temperatures under current climate conditions. Positive CSI levels range from 1 to 5, indicating increased temperature likelihoods. A level of 2 signifies that temperatures are at least twice as likely than in a pre-industrial climate. This index allows for a clearer understanding of how climate change is reshaping temperature patterns globally.

Global Temperature Trends

Between December 2024 and February 2025, 1.8 billion people, or 22% of the global population, experienced daily temperatures driven by climate change. The peak impact occurred on February 28, 2025, when 3 billion people faced temperatures classified at CSI level 2 or higher. This indicates rise in heat exposure due to human-induced climate change.

Africa’s Heat Crisis

Africa is experiencing the most severe effects of climate change. Over 1 billion people in 36 African countries faced daily temperatures strongly influenced by climate change for at least one-third of the winter season. Countries like Rwanda and Ethiopia reported exceptionally high numbers of days with extreme heat, showcasing the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies.

Risky Heat Days and Health Implications

The analysis identified an increase in ‘risky heat days,’ defined as days exceeding the 90th percentile of local temperature records from 1991 to 2020. Globally, the average person experienced six days of risky heat, with human-induced climate change contributing an additional five days. Most affected individuals lived in Africa, where 74% of those experiencing 30 or more risky heat days resided.

Countries Most Affected by Extreme Heat

Ten African countries reported the highest number of risky heat days added due to climate change. Notable mentions include Comoros, Liberia, and Ghana. These countries are facing life-threatening heat conditions, underscoring the urgent need for effective climate resilience measures.

Call for Climate Action

The findings of this study serve as a stark reminder of Africa’s disproportionate climate burden. Despite contributing minimally to global emissions, African nations are on the frontline of climate impacts. The urgency for implementing climate adaptation and resilience strategies is critical as extreme heat events become more frequent and severe.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically analyse the role of the Climate Shift Index in understanding climate change impacts on global temperatures.
2. What are the health implications of increased risky heat days due to climate change? Provide suitable examples.
3. Estimate the socio-economic effects of climate change on vulnerable populations in Africa.
4. Point out the relationship between climate change and food security in developing countries.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically analyse the role of the Climate Shift Index in understanding climate change impacts on global temperatures.

1. The Climate Shift Index (CSI) quantifies how climate change alters daily temperature likelihoods.
2. Positive CSI levels indicate increasing probabilities of extreme temperatures, with level 2 showing at least twice the likelihood compared to pre-industrial times.
3. CSI helps identify regions most affected by climate change, making it a vital tool for climate analysis.
4. It provides a clear framework for understanding temperature trends globally, allowing for targeted climate action.
5. The index illustrates the urgency of addressing climate change impacts, especially in vulnerable regions like Africa.

2. What are the health implications of increased risky heat days due to climate change? Provide suitable examples.

1. Increased risky heat days lead to higher incidences of heat-related illnesses, including heatstroke and dehydration.
2. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, are at greater risk.
3. For instance, over 394 million people experienced 30 or more days of risky heat due to climate change, predominantly in Africa.
4. Health systems in affected regions may become overwhelmed, leading to increased mortality rates.
5. Long-term exposure to extreme heat can exacerbate chronic health conditions, further straining healthcare resources.

3. Estimate the socio-economic effects of climate change on vulnerable populations in Africa.

1. Climate change exacerbates poverty levels, as vulnerable populations often lack resources to adapt or recover.
2. Increased heat exposure can lead to reduced agricultural yields, threatening food security and livelihoods.
3. The loss of productivity due to heat stress can lead to economic instability in affected regions.
4. Health-related costs from climate-induced illnesses can burden families, pushing them deeper into poverty.
5. Social inequalities may widen, as marginalized communities face the brunt of climate impacts without adequate support.

4. Point out the relationship between climate change and food security in developing countries.

1. Climate change disrupts agricultural productivity through altered weather patterns and extreme heat events.
2. In developing countries, where agriculture is often rain-fed, unpredictable rainfall can lead to crop failures.
3. Increased temperatures can decrease yields of staple crops, exacerbating food scarcity and malnutrition.
4. Vulnerable populations may face rising food prices and limited access to nutritious food, worsening food insecurity.
5. Adaptation strategies, such as climate-resilient crops, are essential to mitigate these impacts and ensure food security.