A recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change warns that low-income countries are at risk of losing up to 30% of crucial nutrients from seafood due to climate change. These nutrients include calcium, iron, protein, and omega-3 fatty acids. The research, conducted by scholars from the University of British Columbia (UBC), Canada, indicates that this loss is particularly pronounced in scenarios of high emissions and low mitigation efforts.
Potential Mitigation through Paris Agreement Targets
However, there is hope in mitigating this nutrient loss. The study suggests that if the world successfully adheres to the goals of the Paris Agreement, limiting global warming to 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, the nutrient loss could be restricted to 10%.
Impact on Low-Income Countries
Low-income countries, especially those in the global south, where seafood is a dietary staple and plays a vital role in addressing malnutrition, are most severely affected by climate change’s impact on seafood nutrients. According to William Cheung, the first author of the study and the director of the UBC Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries (IOF), these nations are the hardest hit.
Research Methodology
The researchers used predictive climate models along with historical fisheries and seafood farming data to project future nutrient quantities in seafood.
Decline in Key Nutrients
The study focused on four essential nutrients abundant in seafood and critical for human health. It revealed that the availability of these nutrients reached its peak in the 1990s but stagnated from the 2010s onward, despite efforts to farm seafood and harvest invertebrates like shrimp and oysters.
Nutrient-Specific Declines
Calcium is projected to experience the most substantial decline, ranging from about 15 to 40 percent by 2100 under low and high emissions scenarios, respectively. Omega-3 is also expected to see a decline of approximately five to 25 percent. These decreases are primarily driven by the diminishing numbers of pelagic fish available for capture.
Regional Disparities
Low-income nations in tropical waters, such as Indonesia, the Solomon Islands, and Sierra Leone, are predicted to experience a steep decline in the availability of all four nutrients by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. In contrast, higher-income, non-tropical regions like Canada, the US, and the UK are expected to face minimal declines.
Global Impact
Globally, the researchers anticipate a decrease of about four to seven percent in seafood-sourced nutrient availability per degree Celsius of warming. However, for lower-income countries in the tropics, this decline is projected to be two to three times higher, reaching nearly 10 to 12 percent per unit of warming.
Climate Change’s Role
The primary factor driving this nutrient loss is climate change, which not only threatens seafood nutrient availability but also poses a significant challenge to seafood farming. This situation leads to a growing nutritional deficit, as stated by Muhammed Oyinlola, a co-author of the study and a postdoctoral fellow in the UBC’s department of zoology.
