CSTO Credibility Dented as Armenia Freezes Ties over Azerbaijan Conflict

On February 23, 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the country is freezing participation in the activities of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) without formally withdrawing its membership. This stems from the alliance’s reluctance to condemn Azerbaijan’s incursion into Armenian territories in September 2022.

Background on CSTO

• Intergovernmental military bloc established in 1992 after collapse of the Soviet Union
• Current members: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan
• Key objectives: collective defence, joint military exercises, coordination against common security threats
• Headquartered in Moscow; often described as Russia’s counter to NATO
• Armenia a founding member; Azerbaijan left in 1999

Reasons Behind Armenia’s Decision

• CSTO did not adequately support Armenia against alleged Azerbaijani aggression in border clashes in Sep 2022 leading to 95 casualties.
• Russia cited certain provisions not allowing strikes on Azerbaijan or dispatch of forces without Baku’s consent.
• Armenia accused CSTO of siding with Azerbaijan by refusing to condemn its actions.
• Domestic anti-government protests and opposition pressure also key factors behind Armenian PM’s move.

Implications of Armenia Freezing CSTO Ties

For Armenia

• Leverage move to reform CSTO in its interest by highlighting inadequacies
• Scope to attract more western diplomatic attention amid tensions with Azerbaijan
• Risk of return to large-scale conflict with adversary Azerbaijan

For CSTO

• First major legitimacy crisis; Russia’s diminishing influence evident
• Impact coordination of strategic capabilities and joint military mechanisms
• Signal of fraying Russia-led security architecture in former Soviet space

For Russia

• Challenges its role as security guarantor in South Caucasus amid Ukraine invasion
• Further restraint in influencing political standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan
• Widens differences with Armenia despite both being traditional Russian allies

Scope for Reconciliation

• Armenia may retract decision if CSTO agrees to relook response mechanisms
• Russia could mediate talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan to lower tensions
• Compromise possible if Armenia’s security needs accommodated in CSTO agenda

Latest Clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh

• Days after Armenia’s CSTO move, fresh border clashes erupted in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region on Feb 27, 2024.
• Armenia accused Azerbaijani forces of violating the ceasefire by shelling settlements well within Nagorno-Karabakh borders.
• At least 10 Armenian soldiers were injured according to early reports. Baku denied initiating ceasefire breaches.
• The incident follows a tense year along the Armenia-Azerbaijan Line of Contact that demarcates Nagorno-Karabakh.

CSTO Refrains from Clear Stance

• While calling for restraint by parties after recent clashes, CSTO avoided condemnation of Azerbaijan.
• Joint statement expressed “readiness and determination” to prevent further escalation but did not attribute ceasefire violations to Azerbaijan.
• Falls short of the clear denouncement demanded by Armenian leadership. Reflects Russia’s reluctance to side entirely with Armenia against Azerbaijan.

New Peace Negotiation Efforts Initiated

• Armenia emphasised need for demarcation and sent letters to Russia and CSTO for assistance after Feb 27 clashes.
• Azerbaijan President Aliyev indicated willingness for “normalisation” of ties with Armenia through bilateral peace talks.
• Scope for some breakthroughs though issues like status of Nagorno-Karabakh remain complex sticking points.

The freezing of Armenia’s CSTO membership reflects increasing constraints faced by Russia in upholding multi-lateral security frameworks it has long leveraged to preserve strategic influence. Much depends on Moscow’s appetite to reform the alliance’s efficacy to address emerging threats and vulnerabilities of partners like Armenia. Absent meaningful changes, Yerevan might be forced to seek security assurances elsewhere.