Decline of Maoist Insurgency in India by 2025

The Maoist insurgency in India has sharply declined by 2025. The government’s firm stance on ending the armed rebellion and its lucrative surrender and rehabilitation policy has weakened the movement. The Maoists’ leadership and cadre strength have shrunk drastically. Security forces have dealt blows to their strongholds and leadership. This marks a turning point in the decades-long conflict.

Recent Government Measures

Union Home Minister Amit Shah ruled out talks with Maoists. He urged them to surrender and join the mainstream under the government’s rehabilitation scheme. The government aims to eradicate Maoism by next year. Specialised forces like the Commando Battalion for Resolute Action and the District Reserve Guard (DRG) have been deployed to counter the insurgency. These units have been trained in jungle warfare and guerrilla tactics.

Decline in Maoist Leadership and Cadre

The Maoist Central Committee has shrunk from 42 members in 2004 to just 13 by 2025. Most members are aged and ill. The Politburo reduced from 25 to 7-8 members. The cadre base dropped from 10,000 to under 2,000. Security forces killed over 430 Maoists in 18 months, including key leaders like general secretary Nambala Keshava Rao (Basavaraju). Around 1,450 Maoists surrendered and 1,460 were arrested recently.

Loss of Maoist Strongholds

Maoist influence has waned even in Chhattisgarh, once their ‘Liberated Zone’. They controlled districts like Sukma, Dantewada, and Bastar for over two decades. Police and paramilitary operations pushed Maoists out of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha earlier. The DRG’s role in Operation Black Forest was very important in destroying major Maoist bases in Chhattisgarh’s forests.

Leadership Crisis and Tribal Discontent

Leadership tensions surfaced after Basavaraju’s death. Maoist leaders are mainly upper caste from Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, while most fighters are tribal Gonds of Chhattisgarh. The new general secretary is a Dalit leader from Telangana. Tribal recruits were often inspired by Maoist cultural programmes rather than ideology. Tribal communities grew disillusioned due to violence from both Maoists and state-backed groups like Salwa Judum.

Shift from Armed Struggle to Political Engagement

The Maoists’ focus on militarisation over political development weakened their movement. Their intellectual base and youth recruitment sharply declined. Improved intelligence, coordination among security forces, and modernised tactics cornered the insurgents. Examples like the peaceful resistance in Niyamgiri and Sompeta suggest democratic civil society support is more effective than armed rebellion.

Impact on Maoist Movement’s Future

The combination of leadership loss, reduced cadre strength, and tribal alienation has brought the Maoist movement to its weakest stage. The government’s rehabilitation offers a path for surrender and reintegration. The decline marks the limits of violent insurgency in addressing socio-economic grievances in tribal areas.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically discuss the role of specialised forces like the Commando Battalion for Resolute Action in counterinsurgency operations in India.
2. Examine the impact of tribal discontent and cultural factors on the decline of armed insurgencies, taking the Maoist movement in Chhattisgarh as an example.
3. Analyse the effectiveness of government rehabilitation policies in addressing internal security challenges and insurgency movements in India.
4. With suitable examples, discuss the role of civil society and democratic movements in resolving conflicts compared to armed rebellions in India.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically discuss the role of specialised forces like the Commando Battalion for Resolute Action in counterinsurgency operations in India.

1. Specialised forces are trained in jungle warfare and guerrilla tactics, crucial for combating Maoist insurgents in forested areas.
2. The Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA) has been instrumental in dismantling Maoist strongholds, e.g., Operation Black Forest in Chhattisgarh.
3. These forces enhance intelligence gathering, rapid response, and tactical superiority over insurgents.
4. Deployment of specialised units like CoBRA complements local police and paramilitary efforts, increasing operational effectiveness.
5. Challenges include sustaining morale, avoiding civilian casualties, and adapting to evolving insurgent tactics.
6. Overall, specialised forces have weakened Maoist insurgency by targeting leadership and disrupting cadres.

2. Examine the impact of tribal discontent and cultural factors on the decline of armed insurgencies, taking the Maoist movement in Chhattisgarh as an example.

1. Tribal recruits in Chhattisgarh were often motivated by cultural programmes, not ideology, leading to weak ideological commitment.
2. Violence from both Maoists and state-backed groups like Salwa Judum caused tribal communities to become disillusioned and withdraw support.
3. Leadership disconnect – Maoist leaders were mainly upper caste outsiders, while fighters were tribal, causing internal tensions.
4. Tribal alienation reduced recruitment and overground support, weakening the movement’s grassroots base.
5. The loss of tribal backing undermined the ‘Liberated Zones’ and parallel governance by Maoists.
6. Overall, tribal discontent and cultural disconnect played a key role in the insurgency’s decline in Chhattisgarh.

3. Analyse the effectiveness of government rehabilitation policies in addressing internal security challenges and insurgency movements in India.

1. Rehabilitation policies offer surrender options with incentives, encouraging insurgents to lay down arms and reintegrate.
2. These policies reduce cadre strength by facilitating over 1,450 Maoist surrenders recently.
3. Rehabilitation addresses socio-economic grievances by providing livelihood, education, and skill development support.
4. Successful reintegration decreases the pool of active insurgents and weakens insurgent recruitment.
5. Challenges include ensuring long-term support, preventing relapse, and addressing root causes like land and tribal rights.
6. Overall, rehabilitation policies are effective components of a multi-pronged internal security strategy when combined with security operations.

4. With suitable examples, discuss the role of civil society and democratic movements in resolving conflicts compared to armed rebellions in India.

1. Civil society-backed democratic movements emphasize peaceful protest, dialogue, and legal reforms to address grievances.
2. Examples – Niyamgiri (Odisha) and Sompeta (Andhra Pradesh) movements successfully resisted exploitative projects through democratic means.
3. Democratic movements gain wider legitimacy and sustained public support compared to armed insurgencies.
4. Armed rebellions often lead to violence, alienate local populations, and invite heavy state repression.
5. Civil society engagement encourages inclusive development and political empowerment, reducing conflict drivers.
6. Overall, democratic approaches have proven more sustainable and effective in conflict resolution than violent insurgency in India.