Declining Marriage Rates and Demographics in China

In recent years, China has witnessed decline in marriage registrations. In 2024, only 6.1 million couples registered to marry, marking a 20.3% decrease from the previous year. This figure represents the lowest number of registrations since 1986. The decline is attributed to rising living costs and urban unemployment. Nearly 44% of urban women now express reluctance to marry. This trend is compounded by a consistent drop in the population, which has been declining for three consecutive years.

Historical Context of Population Policies

The root of China’s demographic challenges lies in its historical one-child policy, enforced since the 1980s. This policy aimed to control population growth but has led to unintended consequences. In 2016, the two-child policy was introduced, later evolving into a three-child policy in 2021. Despite these changes, the birthrate has not improved, indicating deep-seated societal issues.

Ageing Population and Economic Impact

China’s population is ageing rapidly. Currently, 22% of the population is over 60 years old, a figure projected to rise to 50% by 2050. This demographic shift creates substantial pension pressures, with predictions that the pension fund may be depleted by 2035. The government has responded by raising the retirement age, yet this measure is only a temporary fix.

Societal Attitudes Towards Marriage and Childbearing

The declining marriage rates are closely linked to changing societal attitudes. Many young people prioritise personal and career goals over traditional family structures. The financial burden of raising children adds to this reluctance. Despite government incentives, the high cost of living continues to deter couples from starting families.

Government Response and Social Disconnect

The Chinese government has attempted to address these demographic challenges through policies and directives. President Xi Jinping has called for a cultural shift towards marriage and childbearing. However, this top-down approach marks a disconnect between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and societal needs. The CPC’s historical interference in personal lives has led to scepticism regarding its intentions.

Future Implications for China

China faces challenges if these trends continue. The declining workforce may hinder economic growth and stability. Moreover, the increasing demand for healthcare and caregiving services will strain public resources. Without addressing the root causes of declining marriage rates and birthrates, the government risks facing a demographic crisis.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Discuss the impact of population policies on China’s current demographic trends.
2. Critically examine the relationship between economic conditions and marriage rates in contemporary society.
3. Explain the implications of an ageing population on a country’s economy and social structure.
4. With suitable examples, discuss the effectiveness of government policies in addressing demographic challenges.

Answer Hints:

1. Discuss the impact of population policies on China’s current demographic trends.

1. The one-child policy, enforced since the 1980s, reduced birth rates and led to an ageing population.
2. The shift to a two-child policy in 2016 and later to a three-child policy in 2021 has not reversed the declining birth rates.
3. These policies have created a gender imbalance, with a societal preference for male children affecting family structures.
4. Demographic challenges have resulted in a shrinking workforce and increased dependency ratios.
5. Overall, population policies have led to long-term societal changes that are difficult to reverse, impacting future generations.

2. Critically examine the relationship between economic conditions and marriage rates in contemporary society.

1. Rising living costs and urban unemployment have made marriage less financially viable for many couples.
2. 44% of urban women express reluctance to marry, reflecting changing priorities towards career and personal goals.
3. The financial burden of raising children is deterrent for couples considering marriage.
4. Economic instability contributes to a culture of postponing marriage, as individuals prioritize financial security.
5. Government incentives have failed to address the underlying economic challenges, leading to declining marriage rates.

3. Explain the implications of an ageing population on a country’s economy and social structure.

1. An ageing population increases the dependency ratio, putting pressure on the working-age population to support retirees.
2. Pension systems may become unsustainable, with predictions of depletion by 2035 in China.
3. Healthcare demands rise as older populations require more medical care and support services.
4. The workforce shrinks, potentially hindering economic growth and innovation.
5. Social structures may shift, with increased caregiving responsibilities falling on families and communities.

4. With suitable examples, discuss the effectiveness of government policies in addressing demographic challenges.

1. Policies like the two-child and three-child initiatives were introduced to combat declining birth rates but have shown limited success.
2. Government financial incentives have not sufficiently alleviated the economic burdens associated with child-rearing.
3. Efforts to raise the retirement age aim to mitigate pension pressures but do not address the root causes of declining birth rates.
4. Top-down approaches, such as calls for cultural shifts regarding marriage, may not resonate with societal realities.
5. Historical interference in personal lives by the CPC has led to public scepticism about the government’s intentions and effectiveness.