Recent studies highlight the intricate relationship between climate variables and dengue transmission in India. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, alongside international collaborators, indicates that specific temperature, rainfall, and humidity levels affect dengue incidences. The research reveals that warm temperatures above 27 degrees Celsius, moderate rainfall, and humidity levels between 60% and 78% are linked to increased dengue cases. Conversely, heavy rainfall above 150 mm per week reduces dengue prevalence by flushing out mosquito eggs and larvae.
Temperature’s Role in Dengue Transmission
Temperature influences mosquito life cycles and dengue virus development. In Pune, temperatures between 27 to 35 degrees Celsius during the monsoon are optimal for dengue transmission. Higher temperatures enhance mosquito lifespan, egg production, and the speed of virus development. These factors directly affect the rate of human infection and symptom onset. Regional variations necessitate tailored assessments of climate-dengue relationships.
Monsoon Rainfall Patterns
Monsoon rainfall exhibits variability that impacts dengue cases. The presence of active (wet) and break (dry) phases characterises monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Years with lower variability correlate with higher dengue incidences. This indicates that the distribution of rainfall, rather than the total amount, is crucial for controlling dengue outbreaks.
AI/ML Predictions for Dengue
An artificial intelligence and machine learning model has been developed to predict dengue outbreaks. This model offers over two months of lead time for health authorities, enabling proactive measures. By integrating temperature, rainfall, and humidity data, the model enhances preparedness and response strategies, potentially reducing dengue cases and fatalities.
Regional Dengue Early Warning Systems
Current health bulletins often overlook the combined effects of climate factors on dengue transmission. The new dengue early warning system considers all relevant climate predictors. This system could aid authorities in managing outbreaks, especially in states with high dengue burdens. Cooperation between health departments and meteorological agencies is essential for the success of these systems.
Future Projections of Dengue in India
Climate models predict rising temperatures and erratic monsoon patterns in India. Pune is expected to experience a temperature rise of 1.2 to 3.5 degrees Celsius by the century’s end. Projections indicate a potential increase in dengue mortality of 13% by 2040, 25-40% by 2060, and up to 112% by 2100 if emissions remain unchecked. These trends tell the urgency of implementing effective climate-health interventions.
Policy Implications
from the study can inform policymakers in devising targeted interventions. Enhanced resource allocation strategies are crucial for managing climate-sensitive diseases like dengue. Collaboration among scientists, health officials, and government entities is vital for improving health warning systems and reducing the impact of dengue.
Questions for UPSC:
- Discuss the impact of climate change on the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases in India.
- Critically examine the effectiveness of artificial intelligence in predicting outbreaks of infectious diseases in India.
- Explain the significance of monsoon variability in influencing public health outcomes in India.
- With suitable examples, discuss the role of interdepartmental cooperation in managing health crises related to climate change.
Answer Hints:
1. Discuss the impact of climate change on the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases in India.
- Climate change alters temperature, rainfall, and humidity patterns, affecting mosquito breeding and survival.
- Dengue transmission increases with temperatures above 27 degrees Celsius and moderate rainfall, creating ideal conditions.
- Erratic monsoon patterns lead to periods of both drought and flooding, impacting mosquito populations and disease spread.
- Projected temperature rises in India could lead to increased dengue mortality rates by up to 112% by 2100.
- India contributes to global dengue cases, denoting the urgent need for climate-health interventions.
2. Critically examine the effectiveness of artificial intelligence in predicting outbreaks of infectious diseases in India.
- AI/ML models can analyze vast datasets, identifying patterns in climate and health data for accurate predictions.
- The model developed for dengue offers over two months of lead time, allowing for proactive health measures.
- AI enhances forecasting accuracy by integrating multiple climate variables, improving outbreak preparedness.
- Success depends on the availability of quality data from health departments and meteorological agencies.
- AI applications can be expanded to other vector-borne diseases, improving overall public health responses.
3. Explain the significance of monsoon variability in influencing public health outcomes in India.
- Monsoon variability affects the distribution and intensity of rainfall, impacting mosquito breeding habitats.
- Low variability years correlate with higher dengue cases, indicating that rainfall patterns are more critical than total rainfall.
- Active and break phases of the monsoon influence the lifecycle of mosquitoes and disease transmission rates.
- About these patterns can aid in developing effective early warning systems for dengue outbreaks.
- Accurate forecasting of monsoon variability can enhance public health preparedness and resource allocation.
4. With suitable examples, discuss the role of interdepartmental cooperation in managing health crises related to climate change.
- Collaboration between health departments and meteorological agencies is essential for accurate disease forecasting.
- The study utilized health data from Pune’s health department to develop a dengue early warning system.
- States like Kerala and Maharashtra can benefit from integrated approaches to tackle climate-sensitive diseases.
- Joint efforts can lead to tailored interventions, enhancing the effectiveness of public health responses.
- Successful examples include the collaboration of IITM and various universities, demonstrating the power of interdisciplinary research.
