The article presents an overview of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), its impact on Iran and its relationship with different countries, and the role India plays in this geopolitical scenario.
The 2015 JCPOA and Its Ramifications
Signed under President Barack Obama’s administration, the JCPOA was a result of prolonged negotiations from 2013 to 2015. The key participants were Iran and P5+1, which included China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany. This accord aimed for Iran to significantly reduce centrifuges, enriched uranium, and heavy-water – all of which are essential for nuclear weapons.
To ensure this, Iran consented for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to access its nuclear sites. As part of the agreement, western nations agreed to lift sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear proliferation; however, other sanctions remained, primarily concerning alleged human rights abuses and Iran’s ballistic missile programme. Although this deal stabilized Iran’s economy after years of recessions, it also attracted criticism from Israel and Saudi Arabia due to their own regional and security interests.
America’s Withdrawal from the Treaty
In 2018, Donald Trump’s administration decided to withdraw from the JCPOA – a move that had significant geopolitical implications. After the U.S. abandoned the deal, Iran resumed expanding its nuclear program, returning to roughly 97% of its pre-2015 nuclear capabilities. Even though several countries continued to import Iranian oil under waivers granted by the United States, the following year saw the U.S. ending these waivers and reinstating sanctions. This move significantly curbed Iran’s oil exports.
Attempts to Revive the Deal
In response to the U.S.’ pullout, other countries involved in the JCPOA endeavored to keep the deal alive by launching a barter system named INSTEX to facilitate transactions with Iran outside the U.S. banking system. However, it only covered food and medicine, exempt commodities from U.S. sanctions.
Iran announced that it would no longer limit its uranium enrichment after the U.S. assassinated Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.
Challenges to the JCPOA Restoration
Attempting to restore the JCPOA faces numerous obstacles. Most notably, the Saudi-Iranian cold war significantly impacts restoration efforts. Furthermore, Iran’s violation of several key commitments, like stockpile limits on enriched uranium, complicates matters further. Iran points to U.S. sanctions as the cause of its economic sufferings, a direct result of the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the deal.
JCPOA and India’s Role
For India, the lifting of sanctions could revive interest in the Chabahar port and the Bandar Abbas port. This development would help neutralize Chinese presence in Pakistan’s Gwadar port. In addition to these ports, India’s involvement in the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), which runs through Iran, may also increase, improving connectivity with Central Asian countries.
Moreover, restoring U.S.-Iran ties would allow India to procure inexpensive Iranian oil, which would enhance India’s energy security.
Moving Forward
The future of the JCPOA must consider not only Iran’s nuclear program but also its increasingly aggressive behavior in the region. The United States’ unilateral leadership is no longer a given in the new multipolar world. Similarly, Iran needs to adapt to the shifting Middle Eastern dynamics, especially considering Israel’s recalibrated relations with several Middle Eastern Arab countries.
