Recently, Egypt has expressed its willingness to restart negotiations with Ethiopia and Sudan regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The dam, seen as a point of contention among multiple East African countries reliant on the river’s waters, is stationed on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia.
Background of the Situation
The GERD project was initiated by Ethiopia in 2011 on the Blue Nile which meanders through a significant part of the country. On completion, the hydropower project promises to be Africa’s largest. Egypt has been vocal in its disapproval of the dam’s construction and has suggested a more prolonged timeline for the project. Sudan also finds itself embroiled in this issue due to its geographic position. The Nile is a crucial water source in the region which is why there are alarms ringing about the possibility of this dispute escalating into a full-blown conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. Several rounds of talks between the three countries over the last four years have failed to yield any agreement, prompting recent mediation efforts by the USA.
About the River Nile
The name “Nile” can be traced back to the Greek word Neilos (Latin: Nilus), meaning a valley or a river valley. It boasts the distinction of being the world’s longest river and is often referred to as the father of African rivers. Stretching approximately 4,132 miles, it drains an estimated area of 1,293,000 square miles. Originating south of the Equator, it takes a northward journey through northeastern Africa before draining into the Mediterranean Sea. The Nile forms an arcuate delta as it merges into the Mediterranean, a term used for triangular or fan-shaped deltas. The river comprises three primary streams: the Blue Nile, the Atbara, and the White Nile, with its drainage encompassing parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Sudan, and cultivated Egypt.
The Dam’s Importance to Ethiopia
Ethiopia envisions that the GERD will generate approximately 6,000 megawatts of electricity post-completion. This could alleviate existing electricity shortages and bolster the country’s manufacturing industry. Furthermore, it could pave the way for Ethiopia to provide electricity to its neighbours and earn revenue in the process. Countries such as Kenya, Sudan, Eritrea, and South Sudan also grapple with electricity shortages and could potentially benefit from this project. The dam is viewed by Ethiopia as a matter of national sovereignty, funded primarily through government bonds and private funds.
Root Cause of the Dispute
An underlying concern is that the completion of this hydropower project could potentially give Ethiopia control over the Nile’s waters. This has triggered anxiety in Egypt as it lies downstream on the Nile. There are fears that the dam could endanger food and water security and disrupt livelihoods in Egypt. Egypt has voiced its concerns to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and hinted at the possibility of armed conflict. It advocates a longer timeline to prevent the Nile’s water level from dropping dramatically when the dam reservoir is filled during the early stages.
Sudan shares similar concerns about Ethiopia gaining control over the river via the dam, which might hinder its water supplies. It has proposed a joint management approach for the dam. Despite these concerns, Sudan stands to gain from the power generated by the dam and could be protected from severe flooding in August and September due to the regulated flow of the river. The ongoing dispute threatens to impact the crucial international trade route through the Suez Canal and along the Horn of Africa.
The Way Forward
To pacify the situation, active mediation and facilitation by neighbouring countries and international bodies are essential. If conventional negotiations between contesting parties do not yield results, a compensation-based approach may be adopted wherein involved countries compensate for each other’s losses. It’s of utmost importance that all countries amicably resolve the dispute and collectively reap the benefits of the dam while ensuring peace and security in the region.