El Niño’s Impact on India’s Agriculture and Economy

The recent El Niño phenomenon from April 2023 to May 2024 affected India’s agricultural landscape and economy. This event was characterised by a notable rise in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, impacting rainfall patterns across India. The consequences were far-reaching, affecting crop yields and food prices.

About El Niño

El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific. This phenomenon disrupts weather patterns globally. In India, it leads to reduced rainfall, impacting both kharif and rabi crops. The last El Niño event was particularly strong, with temperatures exceeding the threshold for classification, resulting in severe agricultural challenges.

Effects on Agriculture

The 2023-24 agricultural year was marked by inadequate rainfall. The kharif and rabi crops suffered due to the delayed onset of winter and warmer temperatures. This resulted in subpar yields and contributed to food inflation. The agricultural sector faced challenges, with many regions experiencing poor crop performance.

Food Inflation Trends

From July 2023 to December 2024, the consumer food price index rose , averaging over 8.5%. High food prices constrained consumer spending. Households had to allocate more of their income to food, limiting expenditure on other goods. This inflationary period was one of the longest in recent history.

Recovery in Agriculture

Fortunately, by early 2025, agricultural production showed signs of recovery. The India Meteorological Department predicted an above-normal southwest monsoon, which is expected to alleviate food inflation pressures. A mild La Niña contributed to improved weather conditions, leading to a better rabi crop and a more favourable agricultural outlook.

Wheat Production

Wheat stocks were critically low in early 2024, but improved harvests in subsequent seasons have provided relief. The introduction of high-yielding wheat varieties has enhanced production. Farmers reported better yields despite some challenges. Prices have stabilised, reflecting a positive shift in the wheat market.

Future Economic Outlook

With anticipated normal monsoon conditions, the economic landscape for Indian households appears promising. Falling global oil prices and a weakening dollar may further ease inflationary pressures. This scenario could enhance household consumption and provide a buffer against external economic uncertainties.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Critically analyse the impact of El Niño on India’s agricultural productivity and economic stability.
2. What are the implications of high food inflation on consumer behaviour and spending patterns in India?
3. Explain the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and global weather patterns.
4. With suitable examples, comment on the role of technological advancements in improving crop yields in response to climate challenges.

Answer Hints:

1. Critically analyse the impact of El Niño on India’s agricultural productivity and economic stability.

1. El Niño caused disruption in rainfall patterns, leading to inadequate moisture for crops.
2. The 2023-24 agricultural year saw reduced yields for kharif and rabi crops, exacerbating food insecurity.
3. Food inflation surged, with consumer price index rising over 8.5%, affecting household budgets.
4. Economic stability was threatened as households diverted spending from other goods to food essentials.
5. Recovery in agriculture was anticipated with a favorable monsoon and improved weather conditions post-El Niño.

2. What are the implications of high food inflation on consumer behaviour and spending patterns in India?

1. High food inflation forces households to allocate a larger portion of their income to food, reducing discretionary spending.
2. Consumer goods companies reported stagnant sales growth due to decreased purchasing power among consumers.
3. Increased food prices can lead to shifts in dietary habits, with consumers opting for cheaper alternatives.
4. Long-term inflation can result in diminished consumer confidence and overall economic activity.
5. Households may prioritize essential goods over luxury items, impacting various sectors of the economy.

3. Explain the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and global weather patterns.

1. Sea surface temperature anomalies, like those seen during El Niño, disrupt normal atmospheric circulation patterns.
2. Warm SSTs in the Pacific lead to increased evaporation, altering precipitation patterns globally.
3. El Niño typically results in wetter conditions in some regions (e.g., western Americas) and drought in others (e.g., Australia).
4. Conversely, La Niña, characterized by cooler SSTs, can enhance rainfall in affected regions, affecting global weather systems.
5. These anomalies are critical indicators for predicting climate-related impacts on agriculture and water resources globally.

4. With suitable examples, comment on the role of technological advancements in improving crop yields in response to climate challenges.

1. High-yielding varieties (HYVs) of crops, such as wheat, have been developed to withstand climate variability and improve productivity.
2. Precision agriculture technologies enable farmers to optimize resource use, resulting in better yields even under adverse conditions.
3. Biotechnology innovations, including genetically modified organisms (GMOs), enhance resistance to pests and diseases, improving crop resilience.
4. Data analytics and remote sensing allow for better monitoring of crop health and soil conditions, facilitating timely interventions.
5. Examples include the use of drought-resistant maize in sub-Saharan Africa, which improved yields amid changing climate conditions.