As Ethiopia embarks on the second phase of filling the reservoir of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the upper Blue Nile, unease stirs in Sudan and Egypt, intensifying tensions before a critical UN Security Council meeting. The decision to proceed with the second phase of filling, with or without a formal agreement, had been previously announced by Ethiopia.
The Core Issue: The Nile Dispute
The Nile, the longest river in Africa, is at the heart of a complex, decade-long dispute. Several countries relying on the river’s waters have been deeply entrenched in the conflict. In 2011, Ethiopia began constructing the GERD on the Blue Nile. This hydropower project, the biggest dam project in Africa, towering 145 meters high, has the potential to hugely impact the Nile River.
The Blue Nile, a tributary of the Nile, contributes around two-thirds of the river’s water volume and most of its silt. Egypt, positioned downstream, has expressed strong objections to the dam’s construction and has proposed a longer timeline for the project. The primary concern lies in the drastic drop of the Nile’s water level due to the initial reservoir filling stage. Sudan, too, is implicated because of its geographical location. The potential for this disagreement to escalate into a full-blown conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia is worrying, given the Nile’s importance as a regional water source. Recently, the USA has offered mediation in an attempt to resolve the dispute.
Why Ethiopia Needs the Dam
Ethiopia envisages the dam as a key catalyst for its industrial growth—projected to generate approximately 6,000 megawatts of electricity. Electric power surplus could drive revenue generation through exports to nearby regions. Neighboring countries like Kenya, Sudan, Eritrea, and South Sudan, which grapple with electricity shortages, could also benefit from this hydropower project should Ethiopia decide to sell its electricity.
Egypt’s Worries
Egypt’s worry comes from the control Ethiopia would have over the water, potentially resulting in lower water levels within Egypt. With 97% of its potable water and irrigation supplies dependent on the Nile, Egypt fears that the dam could severely threaten its food and water security and the livelihoods of its citizens.
Sudan’s Position
Sudan shares similar concerns about the potential control Ethiopia could exert over the river. However, it is likely to gain from the power generated by the dam. The regulated flow of the river would protect Sudan from severe flooding during August and September. As a result, Sudan has suggested a joint management of the dam.
Understanding the Nile River
Originating in Burundi in South Africa, the River Nile flows northward through northeastern Africa, eventually flowing through Egypt and draining into the Mediterranean Sea. Lake Victoria is sometimes considered the Nile’s source, feeding into larger rivers like the Kagera River. The Nile River ranks as one of the world’s longest rivers, formed by three principal streams: the Blue Nile, the Atbara, and the White Nile. The Nile basin spans across Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Congo (Kinshasa), and Kenya. As the Nile River drains into the Mediterranean Sea, it forms an arcuate (arc-like) delta.
A Peaceful Resolution
Finding a peaceful resolution to this conflict will require mediation and facilitation by neighboring countries and international bodies. If negotiations fail, a compensation method may need to be adopted, requiring countries to compensate for each other’s losses.
