Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters as they exit polling stations during elections. The main aim is to gather information on voting patterns as well as the demographic characteristics of the electorate. These polls give early indications of election results before the official results are announced. The concept of exit polls was first introduced in India by the Indian Institute of Public Opinion during the second Lok Sabha elections in 1957.
Assessing Accuracy of Exit Polls
The accuracy of exit polls can be determined mainly through sampling methods and a structured questionnaire. If the sampling method used is well designed and representative, it results in accurate predictions. Common attributes of an accurate poll include a diverse and sufficiently large sample size, along with an unbiased and clearly articulated questionnaire.
Another critical factor is demographic representation. It’s vital to ensure that the surveyed population accurately represents the overall voting demographic. Overrepresentation or underrepresentation of certain groups can impact poll accuracy. While a large sample size is important, what matters most is its representative quality.
Criticisms of Exit Polls
Exit polls often face criticism due to perceived bias of the conducting agency. The choice, wording, and timing of the questions can influence survey outcomes, as can the nature of the sample taken. Many critics argue that exit polls may be manipulated and sponsored by rivals, potentially distorting voters’ choices in a drawn-out election rather than merely reflecting public sentiment or views.
Regulation of Exit Polls in India
In India, Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 prohibits conduct and dissemination of exit poll results through print or electronic media for a specific period—between the hour fixed for commencement of polling until half an hour after the close of the last phase of elections across all states. The Election Commission regulates exit polls, stipulating that they can only be conducted during a particular period, beginning when polling booths close and ending 30 minutes after the closing of the last booth. Exit polls cannot be conducted during the voting period or on polling day.
Articles 324 of the Constitution empowers the Election Commission to issue guidelines prohibiting the publication of pre-election surveys and exit polls. The EC mandates that publications carrying these polls disclose the sample size, polling methodology, margin of error, and background of the polling agency. The ban on publishing exit poll results remains until the completion of the last phase of voting.
Way Forward
For more accurate and reliable exit polls, transparency in methodology is paramount. Polling agencies must disclose information such as sampling methods, questionnaire structure, and the criteria for respondent selection. Collaborative efforts between election authorities, media, and polling agencies can lead to refined guidelines that ensure fairness and accuracy in exit poll reporting. Collaboration with election commissions can provide valuable insights into the electoral process, help share data on voter demographics, and offer guidance on minimizing potential disruptions caused by exit polls.
Understanding the Role of The Election Commission
The Election Commission of India, according to Article 324 of the Indian Constitution, is an autonomous constitutional authority tasked with administering Union and State election processes in India. The commission conducts elections to the Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha, State Legislative Assemblies in India, and the offices of the President and Vice President in the country. The Commission’s composition has evolved from having initially only one Chief Election Commissioner to currently including two additional Election Commissioners. It also has the power to settle disputes relating to splits/ mergers of recognized political parties.
