The ongoing talks in Vienna over Iran’s nuclear program aim at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This marks the first time officials from various countries, including Iran, have met since March 2022. The talks seek to guarantee the civilian nature of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for a gradual lifting of sanctions.
The JCPOA and its Objectives
The JCPOA was signed by Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council – the U.S., Russia, France, China, and the United Kingdom – alongside Germany and the European Union. The agreement stipulates that Iran must significantly reduce its stores of centrifuges, enriched uranium, and heavy water, all of which are crucial elements for creating nuclear weapons.
Furthermore, Iran agreed to permit inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access its nuclear sites. This was done to ensure Iran could not secretly develop nuclear weapons.
Challenges with the Nuclear Deal
However, the deal faced severe issues after the U.S. withdrew unilaterally in 2018 under former President Donald Trump and re-imposed sanctions. Consequently, Iran backtracked on its obligations and exceeded the JCPOA’s uranium enrichment rate of 3.67%, pushing it up to 20% in early 2021. This threshold soon increased to an unprecedented 60%, edging closer to the 90% needed to construct a bomb.
Several countries, including Israel, America’s closest ally in the Middle East, staunchly opposed the deal. Other nations such as Saudi Arabia, Iran’s major regional rival, voiced their complaints about not being involved in the negotiations, particularly given the security risks posed by Iran’s nuclear program to every country in the region.
Benefits of JCPOA for India
India stands to gain significantly if the JCPOA is successfully revived. Uplifting the sanctions could boost India’s interest in ports like Chabahar and Bandar Abbas, which are vital for regional connectivity. This could also help India counteract the Chinese presence in Pakistan’s Gwadar port.
Besides Chabahar, India is keenly interested in the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), which passes through Iran and could enhance connectivity with five Central Asian republics.
Impact on India’s Energy Security
The lifting of sanctions could also have implications for India’s energy security. Currently, due to pressure from the U.S. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), India has had to reduce its oil imports to zero. Restoring ties between the U.S. and Iran could allow India to access cheaper Iranian oil, thus bolstering its energy security.
Factors to consider for Revival of JCPOA
For the revival of JCPOA, the U.S. will need to consider not just Iran’s nuclear program but also its increased hostility in the region. Simultaneously, the U.S. must be mindful of the reality of the new multipolar world where its unilateral leadership is no longer guaranteed. Meanwhile, Iran needs to be aware of the swiftly changing dynamics in the Middle East, given Israel’s recalibration of relations with several Middle Eastern Arab nations in recent years.