In a recent development that garnered attention, a report titled ‘G20 Climate Risk Atlas’ unveiled by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) posited that the wealthiest nations constituting the G20 (Group of 20) are expected to encounter severe impacts of climate change in the future. This novel study sheds light on potential climatic changes and presents comprehensive data across the G20 countries. Interestingly, the report saw the light of the day just two days prior to the much-awaited G20 summit which was held in Rome in late October 2021.
The Climate Impact on G20 Countries
The mentioned report has predicted extreme weather events like heatwaves, set to last ten times longer in all G20 countries; with Argentina, Brazil, and Indonesia potentially experiencing heatwaves lasting over 60 times longer by mid-century. It also highlighted potential climate-induced damages to Australia’s economy, including elevated insurance costs due to bushfires, coastal floods, and hurricanes which could result in property values depreciating by 611 billion Australian Dollars by 2050.
Economic Consequences & Sea Level Rise
According to the report, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses due to climatic damage in G20 countries will see a steady increase each year, escalating by at least 4% annually by 2050, which could reach over 8% by 2100. This economic loss is believed to be twice as severe as the damage caused by the Covid-19 crisis. Among the worst-hit countries, Canada is projected to witness a minimum decrease of 4% in its GDP by 2050, which could further escalate to over 13% by 2100. Furthermore, rising sea levels could cause significant damage to coastal infrastructure within the next three decades. Japan and South Africa stand to lose 404 billion euros and 815 million euros respectively by 2050 due to this environmental hazard.
Risk of Flooding & India’s Vulnerability
The study indicates an increasing threat of flooding, estimating damages worth 376.4 billion euros by mid-century under a low emissions scenario. In contrast, a high emissions scenario could see damages rise to 585.6 billion euros. Regarding the situation in India, various emission scenarios were considered. Under low emissions (lower than present), temperature variations will likely remain under 1.5 degrees celsius by both, mid-century and 2100. Medium emissions (similar to the present level), could lead to a rise of at least 1.2 degrees Celsius in the warmest month in India between 2036 and 2065. High emissions (higher than present) suggest that average temperature could rise to 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.
Climate Impact on India’s Agriculture & Economy
Given India’s heavy dependence on agriculture, climate change could severely impact crop yields and subsequently, the economy. The projected declines in rice and wheat yields could engender economic losses between 43 and 81 billion EUR by 2050 which equates to 1.8-3.4% of the GDP. Furthermore, the water demand for agriculture is set to increase by approximately 29% by 2050, implying a potential underestimation of yield losses.
Projected Heatwaves, Drought, and Flooding
The report also anticipates that heatwaves in India will last 25 times longer if emissions are high, five times longer if the global temperature increase can be curtailed to about 2°C, and one and a half times longer if emissions are significantly reduced. Similarly, agricultural droughts are predicted to become 48% more frequent under a pathway to 4°C global heating. Flooding is another area of concern; an estimated 18 million Indians could be at risk of river flooding by 2050 under high emissions, as compared to the current count of 1.3 million.
Food Security and Declining Labour
Along with these climatic hazards, labor is also expected to decline by 13.4% by 2050 under a low emissions scenario due to the increasing heat. This figure may rise to 24% by 2080 under a medium emissions scenario. Moreover, food security in India could be severely threatened as declines in rice and wheat production could result in losses up to 81 billion Euros by 2050, denoting a 15% loss of farmers’ incomes by 2100.
The Need for Proactive Measures
The report underscores that the window to act is rapidly closing. G20 countries face an urgent dilemma: to prioritize economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and devise proactive climate plans ahead of COP26 or risk derailing the global economy by adhering to polluting policies. The study strongly advocates for swift action to curb emissions and adapt to climate change to mitigate its severe impacts. It calls on G20 governments to heed scientific advice and steer the world towards a more stable, fair, and improved future.
