Recent studies reveal that human activities are the main cause of increasing heat waves in Africa. Rising greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, urbanisation, and land-use changes have intensified heat events. These changes have led to severe water shortages, crop failures, and health problems across the continent. The trend is expected to continue without targeted adaptation and mitigation efforts.
Historical Trends in African Heat Waves
Between 1950 and 1979, African temperatures were relatively stable. This was due to increased sulphate pollution, which cooled the atmosphere by reflecting sunlight. During this period, most heat waves were caused by natural climate variations rather than human influence.
Shift in Drivers from 1985 to 2014
Since 1985, the decline in sulphate pollution and rise in greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide have driven warming. Heat waves became more frequent, longer, and more intense. On average, each decade saw 0.15 more heat waves and a 0.3°C rise in heat wave temperatures. Greenhouse gases accounted for 70% of this increase, with natural causes responsible for the remaining 30%.
Recent Heat Wave Intensification
Data up to 2024 shows heat waves continuing to worsen. The year 2024 ranked as one of the warmest on record for Africa. Western Africa experienced temperatures over 40°C in February, triggering official heat warnings in countries like Ghana and Nigeria. This trend coincides with other extreme weather events such as floods and droughts.
Innovative Methodology for Heat Wave Analysis
Previous studies often used fixed seasonal periods, which were inadequate for Africa’s diverse climate. The new approach identifies the hottest three consecutive months at each location using long-term data. This grid-specific method captures local heat wave peaks more accurately, especially near the equator where seasonal patterns vary. This improves understanding and helps tailor adaptation strategies.
Impact of Human Activities
Deforestation, urbanisation, and intensive farming amplify the greenhouse effect. These activities alter land surfaces and increase heat retention. The combined effect worsens water scarcity, crop failures, and heat-related illnesses. Energy demand also rises during extreme heat, adding economic strain.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
Africa is highly vulnerable despite its minimal contribution to global emissions. The study calls for strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems and improving public awareness of heat risks. Co-developing locally tailored adaptation plans with communities is essential. Such strategies can reduce heat exposure and improve resilience to future heat waves.
Questions for UPSC:
- Critically analyse the impact of urbanisation and deforestation on regional climate change with suitable examples.
- Explain the role of greenhouse gases in global warming and how they influence extreme weather events like heat waves.
- What are multi-hazard early warning systems? How can they be effectively implemented in vulnerable regions like Africa?
- Comment on the challenges faced by developing countries in balancing economic growth and environmental sustainability. Illustrate with examples.
