The recent release of the Ecological Threat Report 2021 by The Institute of Economics and Peace, an international think tank, makes for sobering reading. The second edition of the report offers a comprehensive analysis of ecological threats and resilience aspects in 178 independent states and territories around the globe. The report’s findings are based on respected scientific research on pressing issues like population growth, water stress, food insecurity, natural disasters, and rising temperature.
Conflict and Ecological Threats
In an alarming revelation, the report states that approximately 1.26 billion people spread across 30 countries face extreme ecological risk coupled with low resilience levels. Essentially, these nations are at the lowest capacity to mitigate and adapt to new ecological threats, leading to drastic population displacement. Particularly, 13 countries face extremely high ecological threats, while 34 others experience high threats. The most susceptible regions to these perils are the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Furthermore, the report elaborates on the vicious cycle between ecological degradation and conflict where one leads to the other and vice versa, with climate change poised to magnify these issues.
Food Risk
Global food insecurity has seen a staggering rise of 44% since 2014, impacting 30.4% of the world’s population in 2020, with predictions for a further increase. South Asia is the worst hit region with water and food risks driving the average ETR score. The Covid-19 pandemic has compounded this issue, escalating food insecurity, and it’s expected to leave a lasting negative impact due to stagnant economic growth.
Water Risk
The report forecasts that by 2040, over 5.4 billion individuals will be living in countries grappling with extreme water stress. Lebanon and Jordan, in particular, are facing high risk. Sub-Saharan Africa is another region of concern, with most countries exhibiting the lowest levels of social resilience combined with high population growth. This leads to 70% of the region’s population suffering from inadequate access to safely managed water, which will be exacerbated by population growth.
Rapid Population Growth
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to witness a significant population increase with eleven countries expected to double their headcount between 2021 and 2050. Of these, Niger, Angola, and Somalia will see the highest surge, with population increases of 161, 128, and 113% respectively.
Temperature Anomalies and Natural Disasters
The report also notes that the period from 1990 to 2020 saw a global total of 10,320 natural disasters, with flooding accounting for 42% of all such events. In 2020 alone, 177 countries and territories documented higher average temperatures than their historical averages.
Recommendations for Mitigation
Among its recommendations, the report advocated policies that would integrate health, food, water, refugee relief, finance, agricultural, and business development into a single agency operating in high-risk areas. Empowering local communities was also emphasised.
Internal Displacement in India
According to the ‘Lost at Home’ report published by UNICEF, more than five million people were internally displaced in India in 2019 due to natural disasters, conflict, and violence, marking the highest number of new internal displacements worldwide during that period. Across the globe, nearly 33 million new displacements were recorded in 2019; about 25 million were due to natural disasters and 8.5 million as a result of conflict and violence.