Recent weather patterns and recent-developments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fertiliser shortages have affected the planting of rabi season crops in India. High temperatures in October and a shortage of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) fertiliser have resulted in delayed sowing for key crops such as wheat, mustard, and chana. Despite these challenges, the situation may improve due to beneficial monsoon rains and the potential influence of a developing La Niña.
Current Planting Status
As of November 8, the area under wheat planting was 41.30 lakh hectares, a decrease from 48.87 lakh hectares the previous year. Similar trends were observed in mustard and chana. Delayed sowing is evident as farmers typically begin planting in mid-October. However, this year, sowing commenced later due to high temperatures.
Temperature Effects
October 2024 recorded temperatures above normal. The average maximum temperature was 0.68 degrees Celsius higher than the norm. These conditions have led to poor germination rates, particularly in crops like jeera and seed potatoes. Farmers in Uttar Pradesh, for instance, faced delays in planting due to these high temperatures.
Fertiliser Availability
A shortage of DAP has compounded the issue. DAP is crucial for early crop development. Farmers have reported long queues and protests due to limited availability. This has forced them to either delay sowing or use alternative fertilisers with lower phosphorus content, which could impact crop yields.
Positive Factors for Recovery
Despite the challenges, several positive factors may enhance crop outcomes. Soil moisture levels are high due to surplus monsoon rains, with major reservoirs at 86.7% capacity. Normal temperatures have returned since mid-November, creating a more favourable environment for sowing. Additionally, a developing La Niña may lead to cooler winters, potentially benefiting late-planted crops.
Food Inflation and Market Outlook
Food inflation has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9% in October. However, prices for certain vegetables have begun to stabilise. The government’s wheat stock levels are concerning, and there may be pressure to reduce import duties on wheat and edible oils due to expected crop uncertainties and rising global prices.
Future Crop Prospects
The extended winter predicted from La Niña could mitigate the effects of late sowing. This phenomenon historically leads to better harvests, particularly for wheat. The government is likely to monitor crop yields closely and may adjust policies regarding import duties based on the harvest outcomes.
Questions for UPSC:
- Examine the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in India.
- Discuss the role of fertilisers in modern agriculture and the implications of their shortages.
- Critically discuss the relationship between monsoon patterns and food security in India.
- With suitable examples, analyse the economic effects of food inflation on rural populations in India.
Answer Hints:
1. Examine the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in India.
- Climate change leads to erratic weather patterns, affecting planting and harvesting seasons.
- Increased temperatures can cause poor germination and crop stress, as seen in wheat and mustard this year.
- Extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, directly impact crop yields and farmer livelihoods.
- Soil health deteriorates with changing climate, affecting long-term productivity.
- Adaptation strategies, including crop diversification and improved irrigation, are essential to mitigate these impacts.
2. Discuss the role of fertilisers in modern agriculture and the implications of their shortages.
- Fertilisers, like DAP, are critical for early crop growth and yield optimization.
- Shortages can lead to delayed sowing and reduced crop yields, as seen with wheat and chana this season.
- Farmers may turn to alternative fertilisers with lower nutrient content, affecting overall productivity.
- Long queues and protests indicate the severity of the shortage and its impact on farming schedules.
- Effective fertiliser management and government support are crucial to ensure agricultural sustainability.
3. Critically discuss the relationship between monsoon patterns and food security in India.
- Monsoon rains are essential for replenishing soil moisture and supporting crop growth in India.
- Erratic monsoon patterns can lead to droughts or floods, severely impacting food production.
- Good monsoon years often correlate with bumper harvests, enhancing food security and lowering prices.
- Conversely, poor monsoon years lead to increased food inflation and scarcity, threatening vulnerable populations.
- Investing in irrigation and water management can help mitigate the risks associated with monsoon variability.
4. With suitable examples, analyse the economic effects of food inflation on rural populations in India.
- Food inflation erodes purchasing power, making basic necessities unaffordable for rural households.
- High prices for staples like wheat and pulses can lead to increased poverty and malnutrition rates.
- For example, rising onion prices directly affect the cost of living and household budgets in rural areas.
- Farmers may benefit from higher prices for their produce, but this is often offset by increased input costs.
- Government interventions, such as subsidies and price controls, are necessary to stabilize food prices and support rural economies.
