India and Afghanistan have historically enjoyed close ties, with India being a key development partner to Afghanistan over the past two decades. However, with the Taliban back in power in Kabul, the relationship faces new challenges even as both sides seek to advance connections. Some of the key issues impacting India-Afghanistan relations are:
- Security Situation and Terror Threats
- Recognition of Taliban Regime
- Preserving Development Partnership
- Competing Powers: Pakistan and China
- Regional Trade and Connectivity
An analysis of these critical factors can provide insights into the future trajectory of India-Afghan ties.
Security Situation and Terror Threats
- Deteriorating security environment under Taliban rule has amplified terrorism threats which have direct implications for India’s security.
- Attacks against minorities and civilian protests highlight turbulence in Afghanistan which fuels instability in the broader region.
- Terror groups like LeT and JeM continue to operate from Afghan soil. Recent IC-814 hijacking memorial at Kandahar indicates Taliban’s continued terror links.
- Threat of fighters infiltrating from Afghanistan into Kashmir remains a strategic concern.
| Terrorist Incidents | 2021 | 2022 | 2023* |
| No. of Terror Attacks | 10 | 16 | 13 |
| No. of Terror Deaths | 43 | 125 | 107 |
*January-June
- Refugee influx from Afghanistan has security agencies on high alert with terror infiltration bids detected along Punjab border.
Border fencing work is continuing to curb infiltration risks.
Recognition of Taliban Regime
- India is yet to formally recognise the Taliban government, leveraging its position for securing assurances on terror safe-havens.
- Engagement requires evidence of Taliban moderating its ideology and embracing inclusive governance. Recent edicts against women’s rights undermine optimism.
- Global consensus on recognition issue remains elusive given Taliban’s failure to uphold commitments.
- Interim engagement based on humanitarian aid continues but resumption of major developmental projects unlikely unless Taliban addresses Indian security concerns.
Preserving Development Partnership
- As Afghanistan’s 5th largest donor, India has provided over $3 billion in assistance mainly for large infrastructure projects: Dams, Hydroelectric power, Transmission lines, Health clinics, Educational institutes
- Fate of these projects including salaries of personnel remains uncertain under financial duress of Taliban government.
| India’s Development Portfolio | Project Value | Current Status |
| Salma Dam | $290 million | Dam operational but transmission lines defunct |
| Afghan Parliament Building | $90 million | Construction completed in 2015, condition unknown |
| Zaranj-Delaram Highway | $150 million | Highway open but lack of governance affecting maintenance |
- Options involve either custody transfer to Kabul for ensuring sustainability or suspending operations altogether.
- Taliban keen on India resuming work on dams and power infra reflects reliability and success of past partnership.
Competing Powers: Pakistan and China
- Pakistan’s backing of Taliban and sponsorship of Haqqani Network remains principal obstacle for India in Afghanistan.
- Strategic depth against India, geo-political influence and access to Central Asia are factors behind Pakistan’s Afghanistan ambitions.
- China’s rising clout by leveraging economic inducements like access to billion-dollar copper mines at Mes Aynak also cuts against Indian interests.
Both countries remain wary of India’s role as Afghanistan’s gateway to wider world.
- India losing ground to heavyweight neighbours requires pragmatic counter-strategy encompassing both cooperation and deterrence tools.
Regional Trade and Connectivity
- Trade ties and connectivity projects are key untapped facets offering means to rival competing powers.
| India-Afghanistan Trade | 2021 | 2022 |
| Total bilateral trade | $1.35 billion | $1.10 billion |
| Afghan exports to India | $510 million (dry fruits) | $384 million |
| Indian exports to Afghan | $840 million (sugar, drugs, apparel) | $716 million |
- Direct land access through Iran for Indian goods can boost trade figures.
- Joint strategy combining Chabahar port and International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) can unlock Afghanistan’s connectivity potential.
- Air Freight Corridor connecting Kabul-Delhi/Mumbai operational since 2017 but expansion required for commercial flows.
India and Afghanistan share a deeply interdependent relationship based on civilizational ties and contemporary strategic and economic interests.
- As Afghanistan enters a new uncertain chapter, both nations have to adopt agile approaches across security, political and connectivity realms to fully leverage the potential for cooperation.
- Mitigating the threats posed by radical extremism and demonstrating the will to expand regional trade can set the stage for durable multifaceted partnership in long run.