Recent developments in India-China relations have marked a cautious but shift towards normalisation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit and talks with President Xi Jinping resulted in agreements to restart bilateral trade and air connectivity. Both leaders emphasised peace and tranquility along the border, a critical point five years after the deadly Galwan Valley clashes. Despite ongoing border disputes, the two nations reaffirmed their stance as development partners, not rivals.
Historical Context of India-China Border Relations
India and China have long-standing border disputes, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Since the late 1980s, both countries agreed to maintain peace while attempting to resolve the boundary issue. The 1990s saw efforts to stabilise the border, but the 2020 Galwan clash severely disrupted this. The incident brought into light China’s aggressive posture and led to increased military infrastructure development on the Tibetan Plateau, prompting India to strengthen its border defences.
Recent Diplomatic Efforts and Agreements
Since early 2023, both sides have made efforts to ease tensions. The 2024 Border Patrol Agreement was a key breakthrough. It allowed restoration of patrol rights in disputed areas like Demchok and Depsang. India considers this a diplomatic success, while China views it as a non-sovereignty related arrangement. The agreement followed disengagement at four previous friction points and created cross-patrolled buffer zones, reducing the risk of direct conflict.
Strategic and Economic Dimensions
China’s view of India has evolved from seeing it as a peripheral South Asian country to recognising it as a potential rival. India’s economic growth and demographic advantage contrast with China’s population challenges. China’s strategic moves in South Asia, including trilateral mechanisms with Pakistan and Bangladesh, suggest attempts to counterbalance India’s influence. Meanwhile, India remains dependent on Chinese manufacturing, which dominates global sectors like electric vehicles and critical minerals.
Challenges in Normalising Relations
Despite diplomatic progress, fundamental issues remain unresolved. China shows little interest in settling the border dispute permanently. Military infrastructure expansion and strategic alliances in South Asia complicate ties. The possibility of renewed clashes, such as a Galwan-2, cannot be ruled out. Both countries balance cooperation with competition, navigating complex geopolitical realities.
Implications for Regional Stability
Stable India-China relations are crucial for South Asian peace and global economic stability. Improved trade and connectivity benefit both nations. However, unresolved border tensions and strategic mistrust pose risks. The evolving geopolitical landscape requires careful diplomacy, military preparedness, and economic engagement to maintain a fragile equilibrium.
Questions for UPSC:
- Discuss the significance of maintaining peace and tranquility along disputed borders in the context of India-China relations.
- Critically examine the role of economic interdependence in managing geopolitical conflicts, with reference to India-China trade relations.
- Explain the impact of demographic changes on geopolitical strategies of emerging powers, using China and India as case studies.
- With suitable examples, discuss the implications of trilateral and multilateral regional mechanisms on South Asia’s geopolitical stability.
