In recent reports, the World Health Organization (WHO) has indicated that India is transitioning into a phase of Covid-19 where there’s low to moderate transmission rate. This shift suggests that the country is entering what is referred to as endemicity. But what does this entail? To understand this, it’s important to know what endemicity is, how it differs from other related terms like epidemic and pandemic, reasons behind Covid’s possible endemicity and its implications.
Understanding Endemicity
Endemicity refers to a state in which a particular disease is consistently present within a specific population or geographical area. Some classic examples of endemic diseases include chicken pox and malaria, which see a predictable number of cases every year in certain parts of the world.
Endemic vs Epidemic vs Pandemic: The Differences
There’s often confusion between the terms endemic, epidemic and pandemic. However, each term signifies a different stage of disease prevalence in a population.
An epidemic is an outbreak of a disease that spreads across one or more populations. Unlike endemics, which are perpetual in nature, epidemics occur when a disease temporarily spreads through populations.
Pandemics, on the other hand, refer to worldwide epidemics. Pandemics affect a larger number of people and claim more lives than epidemics. Under certain circumstances, an epidemic can result in a disease becoming endemic.
What Makes Covid-19 Potentially Endemic?
Only those pathogens can be completely eradicated that don’t have animals as their reservoirs. Examples include human viruses like smallpox and polio, and animal viruses such as rinderpest which affects cattle.
If there’s a virus or pathogen present in an animal reservoir, it can transmit again once the level of immunity in the population decreases against the disease caused by it. In the case of Covid-19, since it’s present in animal reservoirs, it will continue to circulate.
The Implications of Covid-19’s Endemicity
The possible shift to endemicity has two major implications: The impact on immunity and future cases.
Firstly, if a sufficient number of people have been vaccinated or exposed to the infection, the virus will likely cause symptomatic infection but not necessarily disease. This is because the population would have developed some degree of immunity against the disease.
Secondly, regarding future cases, as long as there’s no new variant with higher transmissibility than the Delta variant, it’s likely that there will be a steady level of cases. However, regions with low prior levels of seroprevalence and low vaccination rates might witness spikes in cases.
As India moves towards Covid-19 endemicity according to the WHO report, understanding its implications and working towards maintaining and increasing immunity levels in the population is crucial.
