The recent catastrophic floods in Pakistan, resulting from the monstrous monsoon season, have resulted in the loss of more than a thousand lives and affected thirty million people. The resulting humanitarian crisis has led India to extend aid to its neighbor. This is part of a complex series of interactions between the two nations, including significant trade activity.
Humanitarian Aid from India
Amidst the crisis in Pakistan, India has stepped forward with humanitarian assistance. This extends an existing precedent of aid provision for Pakistan during natural disasters, with previous instances being in 2010 during the floods and in 2005 for an earthquake. This will be the first time since 2014 that India offers such assistance.
Bilateral Trade Dynamics
India and Pakistan have an intricate trade relationship that is often intertwined with the prevailing political environment. In 2021, Pakistan partially reversed a two-year old decision to halt all trade with India by allowing the import of cotton and sugar. This decision came after the Indian government’s amendments to Article 370 and reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir in August, 2019.
Despite ongoing tensions and a trade imbalance favoring India, trade between the two countries has grown marginally in the wake of these geopolitical disruptions. However, India’s exports to Pakistan fell by about 16% to USD 1.82 billion in 2016-17 compared to 2015-16 after the Uri terror attack and the ensuing surgical strikes by the Indian Army.
The Causes of the Recent Flood
The catastrophic flood in Pakistan can be attributed to several factors. First, the monsoon season in Pakistan was extremely wet this year. The same southwest monsoon responsible for much of India’s annual rainfall also causes rain in Pakistan, albeit over a shorter span.
Extreme heat is another factor contributing to the floods. Throughout May 2022, Pakistan experienced temperatures consistently above 45 degrees Celsius. The warmer air retains more moisture, and this increased evaporation eventually precipitates, resulting in heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
The large-scale glacial melt in the Himalayas caused by this extreme heat can lead to what are known as glacial lake outburst floods, further exacerbating the flooding situation.
Additionally, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in its La Niña phase, which enhances monsoonal rains causing heavier than usual downpours.
Climate Crisis Playing a Role
The overarching reason for the dramatic scale of flooding in Pakistan is the global climate crisis. The increasing intensity of extreme weather events, such as high-intensity rainfall leading to urban flooding, reflects the various impacts of climate change. It is crucial to recognize these challenges and develop robust mechanisms for disaster preparedness and risk reduction to mitigate the devastating impacts of urban flooding.
The recent flood in Pakistan serves as an urgent reminder of the need for regional cooperation in addressing the effects of climate change, facilitating humanitarian assistance, and promoting regional stability through trade and diplomacy.
