India Faces Severe Dry Winter in 2025

India’s winter season in 2025 has been marked by lack of rainfall. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that 89 per cent of districts experienced deficient rainfall. This dry spell comes despite an above-average number of western disturbances (WD), which typically bring moisture and precipitation to the region.

Rainfall Deficits Across India

As of February 10, the country recorded a 71 per cent rainfall deficit. January 2025 was particularly dry, ranking as the fifth-lowest rainfall month since 1901. Over half of India’s districts received no rainfall at all. States like Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Odisha, and Mizoram reported no precipitation during this period.

Impact on Agriculture

The dry conditions have raised concerns for Rabi crop production. Gujarat, a key producer, faced severe deficits. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh also reported rainfall shortages. In Maharashtra, 35 out of 36 districts recorded no rainfall. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, as crops depend heavily on winter rains.

Regional Variations

While most states suffered, Rajasthan showed some resilience. Eight districts reported no rainfall, but others experienced excess rainfall. The North East Monsoon (NEM) concluded on January 27, with Tamil Nadu performing well but Kerala facing deficits. The uneven distribution of rainfall marks regional disparities in weather patterns.

Western Disturbances and Their Effects

Western disturbances are crucial for winter rainfall in north and central India. In January, seven disturbances moved across the northern regions. However, most lacked sufficient moisture, leading to minimal precipitation. Only one disturbance effectively brought rain, impacting parts of northwest India.

Climate Trends and Future Implications

The dry winter of 2025 raises questions about climate trends in India. Extreme weather patterns may become more frequent due to climate change. Increased temperatures in regions like Kerala indicate a shift in seasonal weather dynamics. The agricultural sector must adapt to these changes to ensure food security.

Government Response

In light of the rainfall deficits, government agencies are assessing the situation. Measures may include promoting drought-resistant crops and improving water conservation techniques. Policymakers are urged to consider long-term strategies for climate resilience.

Potential for Increased Heat

As winter ends, regions like Kerala are already experiencing extreme heat. This phenomenon can exacerbate water shortages and affect crop yields. Monitoring temperature patterns will be essential in managing the agricultural impacts of climate change.

Conclusion on Weather Patterns

The data from January and February 2025 indicates a troubling trend in weather patterns across India. The reliance on western disturbances for winter rainfall puts stress on the need for comprehensive climate strategies. About these patterns is critical for future agricultural planning.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Discuss the impact of western disturbances on India’s winter rainfall patterns.
2. Critically examine the agricultural challenges posed by climate change in India.
3. Explain the significance of the North East Monsoon for southern India and its implications.
4. What are the effects of extreme weather events on food security in India? Discuss with examples.

Answer Hints:

1. Discuss the impact of western disturbances on India’s winter rainfall patterns.

1. Western disturbances (WDs) are extratropical storms crucial for winter rainfall in north and central India.
2. Recently, seven WDs moved across northern regions, exceeding the usual number.
3. Most WDs lacked sufficient moisture, resulting in minimal precipitation across many areas.
4. Only one WD effectively brought rain, impacting parts of northwest Indily.
5. The irregular performance of WDs raises concerns about future winter rainfall reliability.

2. Critically examine the agricultural challenges posed by climate change in India.

1. Climate change leads to unpredictable rainfall patterns, affecting crop yields and food production.
2. Dry winters, like in 2025, severely impact Rabi crops, which rely on winter precipitation.
3. States like Gujarat and Maharashtra faced rainfall deficits, threatening agricultural output.
4. Extreme weather events increase the vulnerability of farmers, especially smallholders.
5. Adaptation strategies, such as drought-resistant crops, are essential for sustainability in agriculture.

3. Explain the significance of the North East Monsoon for southern India and its implications.

1. The North East Monsoon (NEM) is critical for southern states like Tamil Nadu, providing essential rainfall.
2. NEM concluded on January 27, 2025, with Tamil Nadu experiencing large excess rainfall, aiding crops.
3. However, states like Kerala faced deficits, denoting regional disparities in monsoon performance.
4. The effectiveness of NEM impacts water resources and agricultural productivity in the region.
5. About NEM patterns is vital for planning agricultural activities and water management.

4. What are the effects of extreme weather events on food security in India? Discuss with examples.

1. Extreme weather events, such as dry spells and heavy rainfall, disrupt food production cycles.
2. The 2025 dry winter led to rainfall deficits, threatening Rabi crop yields in multiple states.
3. States like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh reported severe shortages, impacting local food availability.
4. Increased temperatures and erratic weather patterns further exacerbate agricultural challenges.
5. Food security is compromised as extreme weather events affect both crop yields and market stability.