India Fertiliser Security Amid Middle East Geopolitical Risks

India faces a critical fertiliser supply challenge due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Iran-Israel conflict threatens key shipping routes and raw material supplies. This could disrupt fertiliser imports vital for India’s agriculture. The country depends heavily on Gulf nations for urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and natural gas. Any disruption risks food security and rural livelihoods.

India’s Fertiliser Import Dependence

India imports 20-25% of its fertilisers from Gulf countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. These include urea and DAP, essential for crop production. The Strait of Hormuz is the main shipping route. Its closure or blockage would severely affect supply chains. Muriate of potash (MOP) imports come mainly from Canada, Belarus, and Israel. While these sources differ, regional conflicts still threaten overall fertiliser availability.

Vulnerability of Fertiliser Types

Urea imports from the Gulf account for about 20% of India’s needs. DAP imports from the region cover nearly 60%. Both depend on natural gas feedstock from the Middle East. MOP is fully imported but from diverse sources. Thus, urea and DAP face immediate risks from Middle East tensions. MOP supply may be affected indirectly due to geopolitical instability in Israel and Belarus.

Current Procurement and Stock Management

India’s fertiliser imports rely on long-term agreements with Gulf countries. Public sector undertakings manage procurement and distribution. The government regulates prices and allocation tightly. However, India does not maintain large strategic fertiliser reserves. Operational stocks cover only 30-45 days. This limited buffer heightens vulnerability to supply shocks, especially during sowing seasons.

Efforts Towards Self-Reliance and Diversification

India aims for 90% urea self-sufficiency by 2025 by reviving domestic plants. However, phosphatic and potassic fertilisers depend heavily on imports. Joint ventures abroad, such as with Morocco’s OCP, seek to secure raw materials. Despite diversification efforts post-Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East dependence remains high. Expanding supplier base and investing in domestic capacity are key medium-term goals.

Challenges to Full Self-Sufficiency

Raw material scarcity limits India’s fertiliser production. Many plants are outdated and energy-inefficient. Logistics and distribution delays worsen during peak seasons. Alternative fertilisers like bio and nano types are yet to scale. Policy remains reactive rather than anticipatory. This structural inertia increases exposure to global price spikes and supply disruptions.

Impact on Small and Marginal Farmers

Urea is fully subsidised, protecting farmers from price shocks. DAP and MOP subsidies are nutrient-based, exposing farmers to rising costs. Delays in subsidy payments and supply interruptions hurt smallholders most. Support schemes like PM-KISAN offer limited relief against input cost inflation. Rising subsidy bills strain government finances, limiting investment in agricultural infrastructure.

Strategic Importance of Fertiliser Security

Fertilisers are as strategic as oil in India’s agriculture-driven economy. Supply disruptions threaten food production, rural incomes, and fiscal stability. India must treat fertiliser security as a national security priority. Building strategic partnerships, stockpiles, and supply chain resilience is essential. Stable fertiliser availability safeguards millions of farmers and the nation’s food system.

Potential Impact on 2025 Crop Seasons

Disruptions in DAP and MOP imports could delay wheat sowing in Rabi states. Kharif crops like cotton and pulses may suffer from nutrient shortages. Farmers might reduce fertiliser use or shift crops, lowering productivity. Rising subsidy costs could exceed Rs 2.5 lakh crore, increasing fiscal pressure. Food security in 2025 may be shaped more by geopolitics than climate.

International Cooperation and Future Strategy

India should deepen long-term agreements with Morocco, Canada, Jordan, and Israel. Equity stakes and joint ventures can secure raw material access. Flexible logistics and alternative shipping routes will reduce risk. Strengthening these partnerships is vital to de-risk supply chains from geopolitical conflicts. Early action is critical to avoid crises during key agricultural seasons.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Point out the challenges and strategies for India’s agricultural input security in the context of global geopolitical tensions.
2. Critically analyse the role of strategic reserves in national security with reference to India’s fertiliser and energy sectors.
3. Estimate the impact of supply chain disruptions on India’s food security and rural economy, with suitable examples from recent conflicts.
4. What are the implications of India’s dependence on imports for critical raw materials? How can international partnerships mitigate these risks?

Answer Hints:

1. Point out the challenges and strategies for India’s agricultural input security in the context of global geopolitical tensions.

1. Heavy dependence on Middle Eastern countries for fertilisers (20-25% imports) and natural gas feedstock.
2. Key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Iran-Israel tension).
3. Limited strategic reserves—only 30-45 days operational stock—heighten risk of supply shocks during sowing seasons.
4. Domestic production focused on urea self-sufficiency (target 90% by 2025), but phosphatic and potassic fertilisers remain import-dependent.
5. Efforts to diversify imports via joint ventures (e.g., Morocco’s OCP) and expanding supplier base ongoing but constrained by logistics and raw material availability.
6. Government-regulated procurement and subsidy systems protect farmers partially but fiscal burden and supply disruptions persist.

2. Critically analyse the role of strategic reserves in national security with reference to India’s fertiliser and energy sectors.

1. Strategic reserves act as buffers against global supply disruptions, stabilizing domestic markets and prices.
2. India lacks large-scale fertiliser reserves; operational stocks cover only 30-45 days, insufficient for prolonged crises.
3. Energy sector maintains strategic petroleum reserves, offering a model for fertiliser security enhancement.
4. Without reserves, supply shocks translate rapidly into shortages, affecting sowing and food production cycles.
5. Strategic reserves provide government flexibility to renegotiate contracts and explore alternatives amid geopolitical tensions.
6. Absence of reserves increases vulnerability to price volatility, fiscal subsidy burdens, and potential social unrest.

3. Estimate the impact of supply chain disruptions on India’s food security and rural economy, with suitable examples from recent conflicts.

1. Disruptions in fertiliser imports (urea, DAP, MOP) can delay or reduce fertiliser application, lowering crop yields.
2. Recent Iran-Israel conflict threatens Middle Eastern supply routes; Russia-Ukraine war exposed similar vulnerabilities affecting nitrogen and potash supplies.
3. Potential delays in Rabi wheat sowing and nutrient shortages in Kharif crops (cotton, pulses) can reduce agricultural productivity.
4. Small and marginal farmers bear the brunt due to partial subsidy coverage and supply delays.
5. Rising subsidy bills (potentially exceeding Rs 2.5 lakh crore) strain government finances, limiting investments in rural infrastructure.
6. Reduced agricultural output risks rural incomes, food inflation, and overall national food security.

4. What are the implications of India’s dependence on imports for critical raw materials? How can international partnerships mitigate these risks?

1. Dependence on imported raw materials (natural gas, phosphates, potash) exposes India to global price volatility and supply disruptions.
2. Geopolitical conflicts in supplier regions (Middle East, Israel, Belarus) increase risk of interrupted supply chains.
3. Limited domestic availability of raw materials constrains full self-reliance in fertiliser production.
4. International partnerships (joint ventures, equity stakes) with resource-rich countries like Morocco, Canada, Jordan, and Israel enhance supply security.
5. Long-term contracts with flexible logistics and alternate shipping routes reduce vulnerability to geopolitical flashpoints.
6. Strategic cooperation helps India diversify sources, stabilize prices, and build resilience against future crises.