The current crisis in Sudan started with a coup by military generals in April 2019, leading to the overthrow of the long-standing President, Omar al-Bashir. The coup was in reaction to widespread protests and resulted in the establishment of a power-sharing body called the Sovereignty Council. The objective of this council was to guide Sudan towards elections at the end of 2023.
However, the military ousted the transitional government led by Abdalla Hamdok in October 2021. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan became the de-facto leader of the country, with Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo as his deputy. This move sparked another conflict within the country’s military sector, causing a rift between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The Conflict Between SAF and RSF
The inception of conflict between the SAF and the RSF began soon after the coup in 2021. The disagreement was mainly over the integration of the RSF into the SAF. The RSF, formerly known as Janjaweed militias involved in the notorious Darfur conflicts, gained significant strength over time. Counting around 10,000 fighters, disagreements arose over their future place in the military and security infrastructure of Sudan.
Ideological Differences and Power Struggle
Differences of ideology and power aspirations further fueled the rift between the SAF and RSF. Their inability to agree on a timetable for RSF integration into the SAF proved to be a significant point of contention. Similarly, the authority overseeing the integration process remained disputed. Such tensions culminated in violent clashes and made the prospect of a democratic transition increasingly difficult.
Economic Impact of the Crisis
The conflict has severely impacted Sudan’s economy. The country is grappling with hyperinflation, foreign debt, and suspension of international support following the Hamdok government’s ouster. The instability poses a significant threat to the region’s balance due to Sudan’s proximity to seven other countries.
India-Sudan Relations Amidst Sudan Crisis
Sudan’s strategic location in Northeast Africa, along with its access to the Nile River and significant gold reserves, makes it of high interest to India. In 2021, India implemented 49 bilateral projects through concessional lines of credit in Sudan, amounting to around USD 612 million. These projects covered various sectors, including energy, transport, and agribusiness.
India’s Response: Operation Kaveri
As the crisis escalated, India initiated ‘Operation Kaveri’ to evacuate about 3,000 Indians stuck in different parts of Sudan, including the capital Khartoum and remote provinces like Darfur. Operation Kaveri employed the Indian Navy’s stealth offshore patrol vessel, INS Sumedha, with two Indian Air Force C-130J special operations aircraft on standby in Jeddah.
Implications for India’s Foreign Policy
The ongoing crisis and India’s subsequent evacuation efforts present significant implications for India’s foreign policy in the region. Given that India cannot solely depend on West Asian countries for its energy demands, it has consciously built relations with oil-rich African states like Sudan. Therefore, protecting its investments, trade, and other interests become even more critical. This includes being cautious about recognizing the new regime due to existing structures of Indo-Sudanese ties and the strategic location of Sudan in the Horn of Africa.