India and Pakistan have agreed to resume the 2003 ceasefire agreements along the Line of Control (LoC) and other sectors. This decision comes after over 5000 instances of crossfire violations (CFVs) along the LoC and other areas in Jammu and Kashmir, causing 46 fatalities in 2020. The two countries’ Director Generals of Military Operations (DGsMO) made the decision.
The 2003 Ceasefire Agreements
The original ceasefire agreement came about in November 2003, four years post the Kargil War (1999). From 2003 to 2006, not a single bullet was fired by soldiers of India or Pakistan, symbolizing peace along the LoC. However, since 2006, ceasefire violations became increasingly frequent.
Backchannel Diplomacy
Several indications suggest that backchannel diplomacy led to talks and a joint statement between the two countries. The Pakistan Army chief General called for a peaceful resolution to the Kashmir issue early in February 2021, showing signs of this diplomatic strategy. India allowed a clear passage to an aircraft carrying the Pakistan Prime Minister despite their differences on the Kashmir issue.
Significance of Re-commitment to the 2003 Agreement
The agreement could lead to improved security on the ground in Kashmir. India has often alleged that many of these ceasefire violations were to provide cover to infiltrating militants. With this renewed commitment, there may be a decrease in infiltration attempts, which could meet a key Indian demand on cross-border terrorism.
India-Pakistan Recent Developments
The last high-level contact between the two sides was during Christmas 2015 when the Indian Prime Minister visited Lahore to meet with the Pakistani Prime Minister. However, dialogue soon broke down due to the Pathankot airbase attack in January 2016, followed by the Uri garrison attack and India’s retaliatory surgical strike along the border.
Understanding the Line of Control (LoC)
The LoC emerged from the 1948 ceasefire line negotiated by the United Nations (UN) after the Kashmir War. It was officially termed as the LoC in 1972 following the Shimla Agreement between India and Pakistan. The LoC is demarcated to the Siachen Glacier – the world’s highest battlefield.
Exploring Back Channel Diplomacy
Back channel diplomacy is a diplomatic tactic used by countries to resolve international disputes away from official bureaucratic structures. This form of diplomacy takes place far from media scrutiny to maintain information confidentiality until targets are reached.
Way Forward
Confidence-building measures (CBM) need to be pursued to alleviate the “trust deficit”, but should not replace dispute resolution. Economic cooperation and trade need to be facilitated to develop mutual interests. Terrorism and other issues related to non-state actors must be addressed jointly through institutionalized mechanisms. If the new ceasefire agreement holds, several opportunities are available to improve the atmosphere between the two countries, including restoring full-strength diplomatic missions on both sides.
