The India-Pakistan conflict dynamics shifted after the May 2025 aerial standoff. Attention moved rapidly to the maritime domain. Both nations have increased naval deployments, capability demonstrations and strategic signalling. This reflects a recalibration of deterrence and readiness for potential escalation at sea.
Recent Strategic Developments
India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh issued stern warnings to Pakistan regarding the Sir Creek area. Pakistan has been expanding military infrastructure there since 2023. The Indian Navy launched Operation Sindoor to establish a forward deterrent posture. The induction of INS Nistar, an indigenously designed diving support vessel, and joint patrols with the Philippines in the South China Sea show India’s growing maritime ambitions. Pakistan responded by dispersing naval assets from Karachi to Gwadar, launching the Hangor-class submarine PNS Mangro, and testing new ballistic missiles.
Naval Capability and Modernisation
India retains numerical and geographical advantages but faces fleet ageing and modernisation challenges. Pakistan is steadily enhancing its naval power with Chinese-built submarines and Babur-class corvettes from Türkiye. Both navies now possess advanced radar, electronic warfare systems and versatile weaponry. The gap between their naval capabilities is narrowing, complicating India’s traditional dominance in the Indian Ocean.
Escalation Risks at Sea
Naval confrontations carry higher escalation risks than air skirmishes. Ship-to-ship or ship-to-shore engagements could quickly cross the war threshold. Pakistan’s maritime doctrine focuses on deterrence-by-denial and anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategies to avoid vulnerabilities experienced in 1971. Gwadar and Karachi ports serve not only operational but also psychological roles in this deterrence framework.
External Influences and Regional Dynamics
Chinese naval presence at Karachi and Gwadar complicates India’s maritime strategy. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could support Pakistan in a crisis. Türkiye’s involvement through supply and training adds further uncertainty. India’s joint patrols with the Philippines and broader Indo-Pacific strategy aim to counterbalance these influences. Both nations’ naval exercises and missile tests demonstrate readiness and attempt to shape future conflict templates.
Strategic Signalling and Crisis Management
Naval activities post-Operation Sindoor are more than routine drills. They represent deliberate shows of force and attempts to influence adversary calculations. India’s deployments have forced Pakistan to disperse its fleet, imposing psychological costs without triggering escalation. However, the narrowing capability gap and evolving technologies like hypersonic missiles and drones increase the risk of miscalculation. Both navies are learning each other’s tactics, potentially reducing the fog of war but also testing strategic assumptions.
India’s Maritime Strategy and Challenges
India faces a dilemma – whether to use the maritime domain for early signalling or reserve it for crisis escalation. Commissioning stealth frigates, focusing on indigenous capacity, and expanding regional partnerships indicate preparation for both roles. The Indian Navy may be drawn into frontline operations earlier than before, marking a new phase in India-Pakistan maritime rivalry.
Questions for UPSC:
- Critically discuss the challenges of escalation control in naval conflicts with reference to India-Pakistan maritime tensions.
- Analyse the strategic implications of China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region and its impact on India’s maritime security.
- Examine the role of indigenous defence manufacturing in enhancing India’s naval capabilities and its significance for regional power projection.
- Point out the significance of joint naval patrols and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region and estimate their influence on maintaining regional stability.
