The recent release of the ‘State of World Population’ report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for the year 2023 has sparked a lot of conversations. This report predicts that India will outstrip China, becoming the most populous country in the world by mid-2023. Each year, this report critically analyses and highlights the developments, trends and challenges in global population and demographics with a particular focus on specific regions, countries, and population groups.
Key Highlights of the Report
The report reveals that India’s population is projected to reach 142.86 crore, slightly higher than China’s 142.57 crore by July 2023, making India the most populous nation in the world. The age demographic of India is distributed as follows: 25% aged 0-14 years, 18% aged 10-19 years, 26% aged 10-24 years, and 68% aged 15-64 years, while 7% are above 65 years. Even though population growth rates for both India and China have been decreasing, together they account for over one-third of the estimated global population, illustrating their significant footprint on global demography.
India’s total fertility rate stands at 2, which is lower than the global average of 2.3, suggesting that the number of children born per woman in India is comparatively lower. Life expectancy in India is above the global average, with males expected to live to 71 years and females to 74 years. Despite promising numbers, gender rights and equality are areas requiring substantial progress. More work is needed to ensure sexual and reproductive right decision-making power for women, as well as protection against violence.
Global Population Growth Concentrations
The projected global population increase up to 2050 is expected to be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania. These countries will house over half of the expected increase in global population.
Demographic Dividend and Recommendations
The report highlights that India, with almost half of its population under 25 years of age, stands to benefit significantly from a demographic dividend. The focus should be on empowering women with more control over when and how they have children. Ensuring gender equality, empowerment, and bodily autonomy for women and girls is crucial for sustainable future growth. Moreover, it also emphasizes promoting education, fortifying pension and healthcare systems, protecting migrant rights, and mitigating climate change impacts.
Opportunities and Drawbacks for India
On the one hand, India’s large working population offers opportunities for economic growth, innovation, increased influence on the global stage, and a potential leadership role for the global south. Moreover, the vast and growing consumer market can attract business investments and spur domestic production. On the flip side, high unemployment, poor labour force participation, particularly among women, and significant numbers of people living in poverty present serious challenges.
About UNFPA
UNFPA serves as a sexual and reproductive health agency, acting as a subsidiary organ of the UN General Assembly. Established in 1967 and operational since 1969, it prioritizes Sustainable Development Goals on health, education, and gender equality. It relies entirely on voluntary contributions from various sources and plays a critical role in global population assessment and planning.
The release of the State of World Population report highlights not only the need for robust population management strategies but also the opportunities that such changes offer. While it brings to fore numerous challenges, it reinforces the importance of continuous efforts towards achieving sustainable development.