The 2022 World Population Prospects (WPP) report by the United Nations forecasts India overtaking China as the world’s most populous nation by 2023. The WPP, published biennially since 1951, considers new national data to update estimates of past fertility, mortality, or international migration trends. Here are the key insights from the report.
Understanding the World Population Prospects
The UN’s Population Division generates the WPP every two years, a tradition dating from 1951. With each revision, the WPP provides an updated series of population data starting in 1950. It does so by considering new national data to revise estimates about earlier trends in fertility, mortality and international migration.
Key Findings of the Report
The report highlights that while the global population continues to grow, the pace of growth is declining. The global population is projected to rise to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. More than half of the anticipated global population growth up to 2050 is expected to occur in only eight countries.
The fastest-growing populations are in the 46 Least Developed Countries (LDCs), many of which could double in size between 2022 and 2050. This rapid growth could impact the achievement of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Furthermore, the world’s elderly population is also on the rise, with an expected increase from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050.
The Demographic Dividend
A significant drop in fertility rates has resulted in a higher concentration of the working-age population (between 25 and 64 years), providing an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita. Consequently, this demographic shift presents a time-bound opportunity for more rapid economic growth.
The Impact of International Migration
International migration has significantly impacted population trends in some countries. Between 2000 and 2020, several high-income countries saw international migration contribute more to population growth than the balance of births over deaths. Over the next few decades, migration will be the main driver of population growth in these regions.
India Specific Findings
India’s growth rate, which was at 2.3% in 1972, has now reduced to less than 1%. Over this period, the average number of children each Indian woman has during her lifetime has come down from about 5.4 to less than 2.1. Consequently, India has reached the Replacement Fertility Rate, where a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.
Along with declining fertility rates, mortality rates are also falling due to improved healthcare and medical advances. The result is a reduction in premature mortality for successive generations, leading to an increase in life expectancy at birth and driving population growth in India.
Recommendations
Countries with ageing populations should adapt public programmes to accommodate the growing proportion of older persons. This includes improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems and establishing universal health care and long-term care systems.
To maximise the benefits of a favourable age distribution, countries need to invest in their human capital through access to health care and quality education for all ages and promote opportunities for productive employment and decent work. Those already in the 25-64 age bracket require skilling to ensure increased productivity and better income.