Recently, the Foreign Ministers of India, the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates convened in a virtual meeting. This event served as a powerful indicator of the evolving geopolitics in West Asia, hinting at the creation of another “Quad-like” consortium in the Middle East. This article explores the implications of this shift in foreign policy, particularly focusing on India’s involvement in the latest grouping.
Triggers for the New Grouping
Several factors have contributed to the formation of this new alliance. Foremost among them is the Abraham Accord, which resumed formal diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE and laid the groundwork for the current group.
The meeting acts as a counterbalance to Turkey’s regional dominance, echoing the shared interests of India, the UAE, and Israel in response to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions for Islamic world leadership. Furthermore, the United States’ intention to decrease its presence in the Middle East, favoring a pivot to East Asia instead, also played a significant role. The move aims to counter China’s rising influence, resulting in a reshuffling of West Asia’s traditional geopolitical equations.
India’s Motivations and Benefits
India’s participation in the four-nation meeting indicates a strategic shift towards an integrated regional policy, moving away from one-on-one relations conducted independently with other nations.
India’s gaze seems to be shifting westward, akin to how the emergence of ‘Indo-Pacific’ transformed its viewpoint towards the east. A concept of a ‘Greater Middle East’ could enhance India’s engagement with its western neighbors significantly.
This new alliance is also influenced by Pakistan’s closer ties with Turkey and its growing estrangement from traditional allies like the UAE and Saudi Arabia in the Arab Gulf. Over time, India has developed strong bilateral relations with each member of the new grouping. It shares common concerns and interests with the US, Australia, and Japan in East Asia as part of the Quad, while Israel supplies top defense equipment to India. Meanwhile, the UAE plays a crucial role in India’s energy security and hosts millions of its workers.
Potential Challenges and Opportunities
While the strategic significance of such a grouping is yet to be determined, there are numerous areas such as trade, energy ties, addressing climate change and boosting maritime security where this consortium could enhance cooperation.
However, India needs to tread carefully to avoid getting embroiled in West Asia’s conflicts, set to escalate due to intensifying regional rivalries. Another challenge lies in maintaining healthy relations with Iran amidst India’s deepening insecurities in continental Asia, following America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. Thus, India has to balance its burgeoning partnership with the US-Israel-UAE bloc while ensuring a positive relationship with Iran.
