India’s 2025 Monsoon Forecast

India is poised for an above-normal southwest monsoon in 2025. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts rainfall to reach 105% of the long-period average (LPA) from June to September. This forecast comes amidst concerns about long-term drying trends, particularly in Northeast India. Factors influencing this forecast include snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and the status of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena.

Long Range Forecast Overview

The IMD’s Long Range Forecast (LRF) indicates chance of above-normal rainfall. The average rainfall for the southwest monsoon is estimated at 87 cm based on data from 1971 to 2020. The forecast has an error margin of +/- 5%. Notably, there is a 59% probability of rainfall exceeding 104% of LPA.

Factors Influencing Rainfall

Several climatic factors are at play. Reduced snow cover in Eurasia is linked to increased monsoon rainfall. The IMD notes that neutral ENSO conditions, which are neither El Niño nor La Niña, are present, favouring good rainfall. Additionally, neutral IOD conditions are prevalent, which do not impact rainfall.

Regional Rainfall Variability

Rainfall distribution is expected to vary across India. Southern Chhattisgarh, northern Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, parts of Maharashtra, and southern Odisha are likely to receive above-average rainfall. In contrast, regions like Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, and parts of Bihar may experience lower rainfall.

Climate Change Implications

The changing rainfall patterns reflect broader climate change issues. The IMD has brought into light a reversal in traditional rainfall patterns, with deserts receiving more rain while rainforests face drying. This trend raises concerns about the long-term impacts of global warming on regional climates.

Atmospheric Patterns

Global atmospheric and oceanic patterns influence monsoon behaviour. The current neutral ENSO conditions are expected to continue, which could enhance low-pressure formations in the Bay of Bengal, leading to increased rainfall.

Future Monitoring

The IMD will provide more detailed forecasts in the coming months. The next update is scheduled for May 15, 2025, which will offer clearer vital information about regional rainfall expectations.

Questions for UPSC:

1. Examine the impact of climate change on monsoon patterns in India.
2. Discuss the significance of the Indian Ocean Dipole in influencing monsoon rainfall.
3. What is the relationship between snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and monsoon rainfall? Explain.
4. Critically discuss the role of El Niño and La Niña phenomena in shaping global weather patterns.

Answer Hints:

1. Examine the impact of climate change on monsoon patterns in India.

1. Climate change leads to altered rainfall patterns, affecting both intensity and distribution.
2. Regions traditionally receiving heavy rainfall, like Northeast India, are experiencing drying trends.
3. Deserts, such as the Thar, are receiving more rain, indicating a reversal of historical patterns.
4. Increased temperatures and changing weather systems contribute to unpredictable monsoon behavior.
5. Long-term impacts include potential agricultural challenges and water resource management issues.

2. Discuss the significance of the Indian Ocean Dipole in influencing monsoon rainfall.

1. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects sea surface temperatures, influencing monsoon strength.
2. A negative IOD typically results in reduced monsoon rainfall, while a positive IOD can enhance it.
3. Current neutral IOD conditions do not impact rainfall, maintaining status quo.
4. IOD interactions with other climatic phenomena like El Niño can further complicate rainfall predictions.
5. About IOD patterns is crucial for accurate monsoon forecasting and agricultural planning.

3. What is the relationship between snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and monsoon rainfall? Explain.

1. Reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere correlates with increased monsoon rainfall in India.
2. Lower snow levels lead to less sunlight reflection, allowing more heat absorption, enhancing monsoon circulation.
3. Snow cover impacts atmospheric pressure systems that drive monsoon patterns and precipitation levels.
4. The IMD reports that recent reductions in snow cover have been linked to stronger monsoon conditions.
5. This relationship puts stress on the interconnectedness of global climate factors affecting regional weather.

4. Critically discuss the role of El Niño and La Niña phenomena in shaping global weather patterns.

1. El Niño typically leads to warmer ocean temperatures, disrupting normal weather patterns and reducing monsoon rainfall.
2. La Niña, characterized by cooler ocean temperatures, tends to enhance monsoon rainfall due to favorable atmospheric conditions.
3. Both phenomena impact global weather, influencing storms, droughts, and precipitation patterns worldwide.
4. Current neutral ENSO conditions suggest stability, but potential shifts can lead to weather changes.
5. Monitoring these phenomena is essential for predicting and preparing for extreme weather events globally.