In 2023, India witnessed a series of disruptive weather and climate events that underscored the intricacy of its precipitation system. The most notable events included Western Disturbance, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These phenomena had noteworthy implications for food security.
Understanding Weather and Climate Phenomena
The Western Disturbance typically transports crucial moisture from European seas to the Western Himalayas and parts of Northern India during winter and spring. In 2023, this disturbance persisted unusually into the summer, causing complications with the transition to the Southwest Monsoon season. Climate-related warming is projected to weaken winter precipitation from Western Disturbance and shift it towards more intense rain events.
An El Niño phase of ENSO also intensified in 2023, posing a potential threat to the southwest monsoon. Notably, the relationship between El Niño and the monsoon is complex and changing. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can balance the negative impact of El Niño on the Southwest Monsoon. According to dynamic regression models, 65% of inter-annual variability in the southwest monsoon is due to the combined effects of ENSO and IOD.
Impact of Climate Phenomena on Agriculture and Water Resources
Agriculture heavily relies on two types of water – green water from rain-fed soil moisture and blue water from rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and groundwater for irrigation. Both are integral for food security. Climate events like El Niño can disrupt rain-fed agriculture, impacting sowing, plant growth, and soil moisture. Despite considerable investments in irrigation infrastructure, around half of India’s cultivated land still relies on green water, highlighting the importance of rain-fed agriculture for food security.
Crops such as rice paddy, soybean, tur dal, groundnut, and maize, even in irrigated areas, are dependent on green water, making them susceptible to climate variability. For instance, soybean yield saw a 28% decline during the El Niño year of 2015-2016.
Impact of Declining Monsoon Precipitation on Emerging Climate Hotspots
Some regions in Central India have become climate change hotspots, with significant implications for water, food, and ecological security. Persistent water stress and water shortages in urban centers pose serious challenges. Monsoon precipitation has been on a downward trend since the 1950s, potentially due to reduced land-sea thermal gradients caused by sea warming. Moreover, an increased intensity of rain events and heat stress add to the complexity. Global climate models have struggled to simulate observed precipitation trends, creating uncertainties in future projections.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
One potential solution is to shift to less water-intensive crops, like millets, to enhance food system resilience against phenomena like El Niño. This could save up to 30% of blue water, but new policies would be needed to put brakes on new demands for the saved water. Encouraging farmers to adopt shorter-growing-cycle crops and diversify their practices could also be beneficial. Improved forecasting using climate phenomena like El Niño could aid decision-making. Additionally, effective management of dams and reservoirs is crucial for reducing flood risks and ecological damage.
This comprehensive review illustrates how climate phenomena can impact agriculture and water resources, provides insights into the impact of declining monsoon precipitation on emerging climate hotspots, and proposes potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. The complex dynamics between climate change and food security continue to evolve, underscoring the need for continuous research and collaborative efforts towards sustainable solutions.
