The eastern border of India is experiencing a surge in security threats. The long-standing calm along the India-Bangladesh border has given way to instability. Political turmoil in Bangladesh has created a power vacuum. This has allowed extremist groups and hostile foreign actors to gain ground. These developments pose serious risks to India’s sovereignty and regional stability.
Political Instability in Bangladesh
Bangladesh is undergoing intense political conflict. The judicial death sentence against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina triggered widespread unrest. State institutions have weakened, and law enforcement struggles to maintain order. This instability has allowed radical groups to resurface openly. The government’s control over security has diminished, creating opportunities for militant activity.
Rise of Radical Islamist Groups
Groups like Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) have re-emerged. These organisations have pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda. Their activities now carry a global jihadist signature. The release of radical leaders from prison and their involvement in state-sponsored events signal a dangerous shift. These groups act as local branches of international terror networks.
Pakistan’s Strategic Involvement
Pakistan has increased its presence in Bangladesh. Recent naval visits to Chittagong are strategic rather than diplomatic. Intelligence reports indicate Pakistani ISI and military personnel operating in sensitive Bangladeshi regions. Proxy groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba are also active. These efforts aim to revive old insurgency networks targeting India’s Northeast.
Territorial Provocations and Diplomatic Signals
During a visit by Pakistan’s military chief to Dhaka, a map depicting parts of India as Bangladeshi territory was shown. This act was a deliberate challenge to India’s territorial integrity. It reflects Pakistan’s revisionist ambitions and adds tension to bilateral relations. Such provocations deepen mistrust and complicate regional diplomacy.
Implications for India’s Security
The resurgence of militancy in Bangladesh threatens India’s northeastern states. Cross-border insurgency routes may reopen. Intelligence agencies have uncovered al-Qaeda-linked communications in Indian cities. The situation demands enhanced security coordination among central and state forces. A unified intelligence grid is essential to detect and neutralise threats swiftly.
Strategic Response and Regional Integration
India must adopt a comprehensive security strategy. This includes seamless integration of intelligence across agencies and states. Border states like Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Manipur, and West Bengal must collaborate closely. Beyond security, India should promote economic development and political inclusion in the Northeast. This will counteract alienation and reduce vulnerability to extremist narratives.
Countering Ideological Threats
The ideological influence of radical preachers and terror groups must be challenged. India needs to promote narratives of unity and progress. Combating propaganda from Pakistan and jihadist groups requires a whole-of-government approach. Strengthening social cohesion in border regions is crucial to prevent recruitment and radicalisation.
Future Outlook
The eastern frontier is a complex and evolving security environment. The revival of jihadist networks and foreign interference demands urgent attention. India cannot control Bangladesh’s internal politics but must safeguard its borders effectively. Failure to act decisively risks repeating the costly errors of the past. Vigilance, coordination, and proactive policies are vital.
Questions for UPSC:
- Critically analyse the impact of political instability in neighbouring countries on India’s internal security with suitable examples.
- Comment on the role of cross-border insurgency in the Northeast and the measures taken by India to counter these threats.
- Explain the significance of intelligence integration between central and state agencies in tackling transnational terrorism in India.
- What are the challenges posed by proxy warfare in South Asia? How can India strengthen its diplomatic and security response to such threats?
Answer Hints:
1. Critically analyse the impact of political instability in neighbouring countries on India’s internal security with suitable examples.
- Political turmoil in Bangladesh has created a power vacuum exploited by extremist groups like ABT and JMB.
- Unstable Bangladesh served as a sanctuary for Northeast insurgents in the 1990s, facilitating cross-border militancy.
- Weak state institutions in neighbours reduce control over militant activities, increasing spillover risks into India.
- Pakistani intelligence and proxies exploit instability to revive anti-India networks in Bangladesh.
- Examples – resurgence of jihadist groups, al-Qaeda linkages in Indian cities, and territorial provocations by Pakistan.
- Instability hampers bilateral cooperation on security, complicating India’s counter-terrorism efforts.
2. Comment on the role of cross-border insurgency in the Northeast and the measures taken by India to counter these threats.
- Cross-border insurgency routes through Bangladesh provided safe havens and logistical support to Northeast insurgents.
- 1990s cooperation with Sheikh Hasina’s government led to dismantling of insurgent camps in Chittagong and Sylhet.
- Arrests of insurgent leadership and choking of cross-border oxygen supply weakened insurgency networks.
- Recent resurgence threatens to reopen these routes due to Bangladesh’s political instability.
- India employs coordinated security operations, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic engagement to counter threats.
- Developmental initiatives in Northeast aim to reduce alienation and insurgent recruitment.
3. Explain the significance of intelligence integration between central and state agencies in tackling transnational terrorism in India.
- Transnational terrorism involves networked, agile threats crossing state and international borders.
- Unified intelligence grids enable real-time data sharing, enhancing threat detection and response.
- Coordination between central agencies and border states (Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Manipur, West Bengal) is critical.
- Shared operational protocols prevent isolated vulnerabilities along riverine and jungle borders.
- Integrated intelligence reduces duplication, improves resource utilization, and speeds up counter-terror actions.
- Essential for dismantling terror networks linked to global jihadist groups like al-Qaeda operating from neighbouring countries.
4. What are the challenges posed by proxy warfare in South Asia? How can India strengthen its diplomatic and security response to such threats?
- Proxy warfare involves hostile states using non-state actors to destabilize rivals covertly.
- Challenges include deniability, asymmetric threat escalation, and difficulty in attribution.
- Pakistan’s use of ISI, Lashkar-e-Toiba, and other proxies in Bangladesh and Northeast India exemplifies this threat.
- India must enhance border surveillance, intelligence cooperation, and counter-insurgency capabilities.
- Diplomatic efforts should focus on isolating state sponsors through international forums and bilateral pressure.
- Strengthening regional partnerships and promoting inclusive development reduces proxy influence and recruitment.
