The recent government data reveals that the total fertility rate (TFR) in India is experiencing a considerable decline. The current TFR is 2.2 per woman, which is very near to the global replacement rate of 2.1. The TFR report, issued by the government’s Sample Registration System, is concluded after evaluating data from 22 states.
Total Fertility Rate: An Overview
TFR is an indicator used to determine the average number of children a woman is expected to give birth to during her fertile years, which is generally between the ages of 15-49. When TFR touches the benchmark of 2.1, termed the replacement level, it means the number of births is just enough to replace the parents, taking into consideration factors like infant mortality, skewed sex ratio, amongst others. When the population falls below this level, it indicates a declining trend.
Trends in Urban and Rural India
Over the years, both urban and rural India have witnessed a dramatic fall in TFR. In urban India, it has dipped drastically from 4.1 in 1971 to 1.7 currently, falling even below the replacement level. On the other hand, rural India saw a decrease from 5.4 to 2.4 during the same period.
However, there is a significant variation in TFR across regions. For rural areas, the TFR ranges from 1.6 in Delhi and Tamil Nadu to 3.3 in Bihar. Whereas for urban regions, the range falls between 1.1 in Himachal Pradesh to 2.4 in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
A Closer Look at Age and Literacy Factors
In terms of age groups, the most fertile age group is 25-29, except in Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra, where fertility peaks between 20-24 years. Only in Jammu & Kashmir does the peak occur after 30 years.
| State | Peak Fertility Age Group |
|---|---|
| Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra | 20-24 |
| Jammu & Kashmir | After 30 |
| Rest of India | 25-29 |
The declining fertility trend is prominent in regions where female literacy is high. Bihar, which has the highest TFR of 3.2, also has the highest percentage of illiterate women at 26.8%. Conversely, Kerala, boasting a female literacy rate of 99.3%, has one of the lowest fertility rates in India.
Key Factors Behind the Declining TFR
Various societal changes are contributing to this falling TFR, including access to higher education, increased mobility, tendency towards late marriages, financial independence for women, and overall prosperity.
Implications on Policy Making
With India entering a 37-year period of demographic dividend, there is potential for accelerated economic growth and higher productivity. It is crucial for the government to strategize policies to seize this opportunity effectively. Additionally, as the population grows older, the medical expenses will likely increase, thereby necessitating carefully planned policies. An affordable social security system that offers pension to the elderly and takes care of their daily needs and medical expenses will be a significant consideration.
Source: Mint
Last Modified: February 6, 2024